I lived in MN for 10 years. I was also involved in MN politics at a political think tank and as part of the Pawlenty campaign. Let me give you my perspective/predictions. Trump lost in 2016 by 1.5%. At the time he didn’t have support from unions like he does now. Minnesota doesn’t a Democrat party, it’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL). Couple things to note: 1) Labor unions overwhelmingly support Trump now; 2) Farmers, despite some issues with the trade deal initially, support Trump; 3) Six iron range mayors, in what would be considered deep blue country came out publicly in support of Trump, 4) The Ilhan Ohmar factor cannot be overstated, she’s an embarrassment, 5) Somali crime was ridiculous when I lived there and it’s gotten so much worse, 6) This is kind of an interesting one but the only traditionally liberal state it seems that Kanye West got on ballot is Minnesota. I was there in ‘98 when Jesse Ventura got elected. I watched the election all night and couldn’t believe a pro wrestler with no experience in politics could win. Minnesotans are vengeful. If they feel like they’ve been fucked by the system don’t think they won’t try to fuck it back. I expect 3%+ maybe even 5%+ of the vote to go to Kanye from blacks and college kids, which would get peeled off from Biden’s vote. This alone is enough to overcome the 1.5% deficit from 2016. Look at Jesse Ventura in ‘98 and call me crazy. 7) Last and definitely not least, the riots!!!! Over 2000 buildings were damaged or destroyed. I talked to a friend who said she couldn’t get gas or groceries in her neighborhood because everything had been burned down. The MSM may not cover this but people see this stuff, they live it, they talk about it, word travels. Suburban moms and dads around Minneapolis-St. Paul are not cool with this. They want to keep their families safe. In conclusion, my pedes, don’t worry, Minnesota will flip R first time in 50 years.

Creepy

Fuckkkkk

First of all, I live in Bucks county, Northeast of Philly, on the New Jersey border. I’m seeing these trends on the ground:

1. People are fleeing New Jersey in record numbers, many of whom are moving to Philly burbs. The Trump changes to the tax code in 2017 highly disincentivize living in areas with high home prices and high local and state taxes. All of which Jersey has some of the highest in the country. Middle middle to upper middle suburban families are especially vulnerable to this and this demographic is substantially more likely to vote GOP than others. So if you have an influx of GOP voters fleeing from a solidly blue state to a swing state like PA this is a huge deal. It gets PA over the edge to go red again.

2. Philly suburbs have some of the biggest influxes of Russian immigrants in the country. Guess what the Muh Russia shit show did to newly naturalized Russian immigrants who weren’t sure who to vote for? Yeah, vote for the party that doesn’t vilify your people or home country. The clearest evidence I’ve seen for this is the special PA house election that was held in Bensalem, PA where there has been a surge in Russian immigrants since 2016. In 2016 this area voted +9 for Hillary and the expectation was that it was likely the Democrat candidate for the special PA House election would win, especially with the impact of Coronavirus on popular opinion. He didn’t. We’ll see what 2020 shows but I have the gut feeling that the changing demographics of Bucks county and surrounding suburbs to Eastern European and Russian Americans will be a boon for the GOP and our POTUS.