(if you saw my earlier post, I had a brain-fade and substituted "Michigan" for "Georgia". Georgia is correct)

There have been several posts about these ballots. To recap:

Multiple observers have filed affidavits about piles of allegedly absentee ballots that were "pristine": they had never been folded, and had a "perfect" mark for Biden, filling in the bubble exactly.

Why is this suspicious? An absentee ballot should have been folded to be inserted in the security envelope. And, they should be marked by hand, with a check-mark, a X, or a filled-in bubble that doesn't look like it was printed.

OK, now that I've caught you up, here's what you should know:

Modern laser printers and copiers have an anti-counterfeiting feature that adds a barely visible watermark to every page that is printed. It's typically a pattern of pale yellow dots that represents an identification code for that printer or copier. It's put there by an agreement with the US Secret Service, who investigates counterfeiting of currency:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_Identification_Code

A printer cannot be easily traced back to the owner, as there's no equivalent of firearm registration for printers and copiers. But, it provides the ability to matched printed output with a printer, and sufficient to prove the two are connected.

Depending on how these suspicious "pristine" ballots were generated, forensic examination may be able to prove that they all came from the same printer, or a handful of printers. And given samples from all the printers that legitimately print ballots, these ballots may be linkable back to a specific printer.

I don't have a Twitter account, but can someone send this information to Lin Wood? If he can trigger a forensic examination of these suspicious ballots, he should know to include this, and try to hire an independent examiner to confirm or refute it.

For the past month, the financial press has been gaslighting investors, claiming every decline in the market was the fault of Trump (COVID, unemployment, etc), and every gain in the market was because investors thought Biden and Democrats would start printing more money for stimulus.

When the market took off yesterday (and the futures took off the night before), they scrambled to explain it. As it continues to increase today despite the uncertainty in the Presidential election, they finally admitted:

It was the prospect of a Biden victory and Democrat control of the Senate that was driving the decline. Now that it's almost certain the Republicans will hold control of the Senate, the market has heaved a sigh of relief, knowing that any tax increase (and new regulations) would be blocked by the Senate.

Before you read any further: Be careful about drawing any conclusions from this data. I'll explain why at the end, so please read this entire post.

I posted this yesterday, but since then some late data was added to the website.

There has been repeated posts of claims that ~53% of early voters in Texas are Republicans. This is based on estimates of party identification from other sources, because Texas does not have partisan voter registration. If you don't believe me, take a look at your voter registration card, or this image:

https://www.votetexas.gov/images/sample-vr-cert.png

(The color changes each year, so yours may be different)

There is no field for party registration. There is a field in the center, to be filled in or stamped when you vote in a party primary. This is the most common way to become temporarily affiliated with a party. The only consequence is you cannot vote in another party's primary (or runoff), until the end of the calendar year. Your affiliation automatically expires at that time.

There are a couple of other ways you can become temporarily affiliated with a party. This is explained in the Texas Secretary of State's FAQ on the subject:

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2020-05.shtml

Moving on to the data: The Texas Secretary of State publishes early voting data every day, with the number of early voters (both in-person and mail-in). If you dig into the detailed data, you'll find that it lists the name of the voter, their voter ID, and their method of voting. I explain how to download that data here:

https://thedonald.win/p/HrOutQY6/texas-pede-alert--if-you-mailed-/

I downloaded the rosters for early voting in the general election, which concluded on Friday, 10/30. Then, I went back and downloaded all of the early voting rosters for the Republican and Democrat primaries on 2020-03-03.

A few things about this data:

• 9,677,963 voted early in the general election (57.03% of registered voters)
• 1,079,155 voted early in the Republican primary (6.66% of registered voters)
• 1,001,529 voted early in the Democrat primary (6.16% of registered voters)

Remember: these are early voters. These are the only ones that are identified by name and voter ID. It does not include election day voters. So, what are we missing?

• 46.50% of Republican primary voters voted on primary day in 2020
• 52.18% of Democrat primary voters voted on primary day in 2020
• For comparison: 49.86% of all votes were cast on election day in 2016

Early voting for the general election started a week early, and Texas has set a record for the number of votes cast in an election even before Election Day. So, I don't know how many people (percentage-wise) will vote on 11/3, or how those votes might be distributed.

But with all these qualifiers in mind, this is what I did with the early voting data: I compared the voter ID in the general election voting roster with the voting rosters for the Democrat and Republican primaries, to identify how many people voting early in the general election had voted early in the primaries.

This is what I found:

• 94.12% of early voters in the Republican primary voted early in the general election
• 91.53% of early voters in the Democrat primary voted early in the general election

(I don't think these are unexpected, as primary voters are more likely to vote in general)

• 10.52% of early voters in the general election voted early in the Republican primary
• 9.50% of early voters in the general election voted early in the Democrat primary
• 79.98% of early voters in the general election did not vote in either party primary

So, what can we conclude from this data? Very little.

Almost exactly 1 out of 5 early voters in the general election did not vote in the 2020 primary. So, how can anyone determine their party affiliation? They can't, and you shouldn't take their claims seriously. There is no other definitive data, so their methodology is little more than hand-waving.

In addition, someone's vote in the 2020 primary doesn't conclusively determine their vote in the general election. Someone may not like the winner of their party's primary, or they may have "crossed over" to vote in the other party's primary to promote a weaker candidate. Spez: It's also worth noting that Trump essentially ran unopposed in 2020, so Republican primary turnout was much lower (on a percentage basis) than in 2016.

Some additional information from the data:

• 91.64% of early Republican primary voters voted in person, 8.48% mailed it in.
• 88.56% of early Democrat primary voters voted in person, 11.51% mailed it in.
• 90.17% of early general election voters voted in person, 10.04% mailed it in.

Before you read any further: Be careful about drawing any conclusions from this data. I'll explain why at the end, so please read this entire post.

There has been repeated posts of claims that ~53% of early voters in Texas are Republicans. This is based on estimates of party identification from other sources, because Texas does not have partisan voter registration. If you don't believe me, take a look at your voter registration card, or this image:

https://www.votetexas.gov/images/sample-vr-cert.png

(The color changes each year, so yours may be different)

There is no field for party registration. There is a field in the center, to be filled in or stamped when you vote in a party primary. This is the most common way to become temporarily affiliated with a party. The only consequence is you cannot vote in another party's primary (or runoff), until the end of the calendar year. Your affiliation automatically expires at that time.

There are a couple of other ways you can become temporarily affiliated with a party. This is explained in the Texas Secretary of State's FAQ on the subject:

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2020-05.shtml

Moving on to the data: The Texas Secretary of State publishes early voting data every day, with the number of early voters (both in-person and mail-in). If you dig into the detailed data, you'll find that it lists the name of the voter, their voter ID, and their method of voting. I explain how to download that data here:

https://thedonald.win/p/HrOutQY6/texas-pede-alert--if-you-mailed-/

I downloaded the rosters for early voting in the general election, which concluded on Friday, 10/30. Then, I went back and downloaded all of the early voting rosters for the Republican and Democrat primaries on 2020-03-03.

A few things about this data:

• 9,669,246 voted early in the general election (57.03% of registered voters)
• 1,079,155 voted early in the Republican primary (6.66% of registered voters)
• 1,001,529 voted early in the Democrat primary (6.16% of registered voters)

Remember: these are early voters. These are the only ones that are identified by name and voter ID. It does not include election day voters. So, what are we missing?

• 46.50% of Republican primary voters voted on primary day in 2020
• 52.18% of Democrat primary voters voted on primary day in 2020
• For comparison: 49.86% of all votes were cast on election day in 2016

Early voting for the general election started a week early, and Texas has set a record for the number of votes cast in an election even before Election Day. So, I don't know how many people (percentage-wise) will vote on 11/3, or how those votes might be distributed.

But with all these qualifiers in mind, this is what I did with the early voting data: I compared the voter ID in the general election voting roster with the voting rosters for the Democrat and Republican primaries, to identify how many people voting early in the general election had voted early in the primaries.

This is what I found:

• 94.04% of early voters in the Republican primary have voted early in the general election
• 91.42% of early voters in the Democrat primary have voted early in the general election

(I don't think these are unexpected, as primary voters are more likely to vote in general)

• 10.56% of early voters in the general election voted early in the Republican primary
• 9.53% of early voters in the general election voted early in the Democrat primary
• 79.90% of early voters in the general election did not vote in either party primary

So, what can we conclude from this data? Very little.

About 1 out of 5 early voters in the general election did not vote in the 2020 primary. So, how can anyone determine their party affiliation? They can't, and you shouldn't take their claims seriously.

In addition, someone's vote in the 2020 primary doesn't conclusively determine their vote in the general election. Someone may not like the winner of their party's primary, or they may have "crossed over" to vote in the other party's primary to promote a weaker candidate. Spez: It's also worth noting that Trump essentially ran unopposed in 2020, so Republican primary turnout was much lower (on a percentage basis) than in 2016.

Some additional information from the data:

• 91.64% of early Republican primary voters voted in person, 8.48% mailed it in.
• 88.56% of early Democrat primary voters voted in person, 11.51% mailed it in.
• 90.13% of early general election voters voted in person, 10.08% mailed it in.