Donated $250. Half because of how damn important this is, half because I want to make sure I'm on AOC's list.
As a data scientist myself, this sort of analysis warms my heart. But of course I stumbled upon this right before going to bed, so couldn't resist doing a little bit of exploration! Will be pouring through this a lot more tomorrow, but wanted to at least take a glance at Wisconsin.
What is very puzzling is that, if I'm interpreting the data correctly, at the time of that last "push" by the dems to nudge the D/R ratio above 1.0, the GOP had a commanding lead. From 2:58 AM to 9:37 AM (again, assuming I'm reading the data correctly), with 262 batches of votes, the minimum ratio was 0.905, max was 0.989, and average was 0.924. Translation: GOP held onto a consistent advantage throughout this time span as various magnitudes of batches came in.
The GLARING issue is the one large batch of votes that followed that was 85.1% dem, which just so happened to be enough to erase the GOP lead, and actually put the GOP several thousand votes behind. The following batches comprising >30k votes maintained a constant ratio: 49.3% incremental for dems against 49.0% for GOP. Strange.
One plausible explanation is that this one burst was from one of the urban areas. Given that it's the largest one it might be reasonable to conclude it was Milwaukee. But if you look at the top 10 batches received, the average dem percentage was 49.8%. Top 5 was 53.7%. Top three: 64.6%. So it seems like this county really bucks the trend! And then if this were truly Milwaukee, hey maybe they just have a history of voting this dramatically? Not even close. From 2000 to 2016 the dem candidate percentages were: 60.7, 62.3, 68.2 (Obama), 68.2 (Obama again), 65.6. So that 85% figure...awfully suspicious. You might wonder: what if this wasn't Milwaukee? Wouldn't make a difference. If you looked at any of the other large counties that's about as blue as they get.
To recap, to believe this is pure and true one would have to believe:
- It was coincidence that this was just enough to erase a huge lead
- It was coincidence that the largest reported batch broke far and away the hardest for the dems
- That the voters were so enchanted with Biden that he received 19 points higher as a voting percentage than Obama did in either election
My friends, if this isn't fraud I would LOVE to read a rational explanation.
Might be mistaken, but those are the totals that the GOP was accounting for going into today. There are still far more likely republican voters remaining than likely democrat voters remaining. More than enough to make up for that gap.
I had such high hopes for him when he started. Seemed like a decent guy, down to earth, would call into WAAF every now and then and shoot the breeze about sports. Couldn't have been more wrong. I'd willingly vote Mickey Mouse over him now, especially after his recent iron fist antics.
Famous Smoke sponsors Rudy's show? Placing an order tonight.