You are legitimately retarded if you think this article proves anything about any death rate whatsoever. This may be too complicated for your tiny head, but you can't figure out a mortality rate without an accurate total of cases. Shut the fuck up and go back to reddit.
Also, without action, many more than 1.8 million globally will die from the Chinese Virus.
Fear mongering nonsense about a hypothetical scenario that doesn't even exist based entirely off incomplete data and shitty modelling.
So you're telling me the average person is just looking at absolute numbers with no understanding of what the reality behind those numbers actually is and you think wanting to use the correct terms and numbers is being pedantic. Just stop. What you call pedantry is actually just correcting the misinformation you are spreading. You are part of the problem.
No one conflated anything. We all understand that there are more cases than documented, but we have to work with what we have.
Bullshit. All measurements of death rate are based off positive tests. That is not accurate no matter what way you look at it ESPECIALLY when 96% of positive tests have have mild or no symptoms at all. With that high of a percentage of positive tests being mild or asymptomatic, the number of people in the general population that are infected and will never be tested could quite easily be orders of magnitude higher than currently assumed which would make the death rate orders of magnitude lower.
Deaths are accurate
No the deaths are not accurate. Different countries report cause of death differently. Italy for example has come out and said “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus.” So 8200 deaths in your little chart is actually about 1000.
The "cases" is not accurate. That number is positive tests. Likewise the infected death rate is the death rate among positive tests. The propensity that people have to conflate positive tests with total cases is really getting tiring.
How do you not get how the media has so much power? Have you not been watching what the media and education system has been doing for the last 50 years? Your answer can be summed up by a George Carlin quote. Think of how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of everyone is even dumber than that.
Impossible to judge mortality rate with an unknown total number of cases. Current mortality rates are based on only cases with positive tests. Their National Institute of Health also came out recently and said only roughly 12% of their death total could be directly attributed to Covid19. So no, they are no where near close to a 10% mortality rate.
I wrote a fairly long post describing this last night in response to a poster's fear about the infectiousness and mortality.
Ok. It is absolutely very infectious, no argument there. The deaths and the death rate are not quite as cut and dry. First, different countries classify conditions and cause of death in different ways. A great example of this is the difference between how Germany and Italy represent death counts. In Italy, if a 85 year old man is in the hospital with multiple organ failure already near death and he happens to catch Covid19 hours before his death, his death is ruled as a fatality due to Covid19. Germany on the other hand only rules the death due to Covid19 if it was the direct cause of death. This is one of many reasons for the difference in death totals between the two countries. As confirmation of this, Italy has come out and said “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus.” So with Italy's official death count being ~6800 that means the actual number of people that have died because of covid19 numbers roughly 820, according to their National Institute of Health. With their current confirmed positive case total being 69,000, that puts the death rate against confirmed cases at 1.2%
Next, the 1.2% death rate is being measured against cases that were confirmed with a positive test. The people that we test tend to be the most serious cases. Both of these conditions will artificially increase the mortality rate. In order to measure the mortality rate we need some idea of total number of cases. Right now there are 294k confirmed positives with 13,000 (4%) in serious condition worldwide. That means 96% of the people who test positive have mild or no symptoms at all. What does that compute to across the worldwide population of people who have mild or no symptoms but don't get tested? It's entirely likely there are many 10s of millions of cases worldwide at the moment which means the true rate of serious complication of death is significantly lower than 1.2%.
Here's is a critical scenario that I don't hear people talking about. All of their projections and emergency plans hinge on the projections of incomplete modelling and one thing blows the entire thing up. If they are wrong about the length of time this virus has been in the country and what they think is day 30 is actually day 60 or day 90, the entire picture changes. Especially with how this virus presents as ARDS, it could have gone unnoticed for quite a while. I think my family contracted this right after Christmas as we all got smashed with a 3 week illness with the exact symptoms currently seen. If this is true that means there have probably been 10s of millions of infections over the last couple months in this country alone. The apparent prevalence of mild or asymptomatic cases only increases the possibility that it's been here a long time and the true numbers of infected are much higher. This also would mean the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than currently assumed on top of the variables just discussed.
Along with hydroxychloroquine and the zpak we will also be able to start doing plasma transfusions soon from recovered patients giving the most gravely ill active antibodies to immediately begin fighting the virus. There are multiple things in the pipeline that we're going to start assaulting the virus with.
So the current official global death count is roughly 19,000 and due to reasons already discussed, we know that number to be inaccurate if you want to know the number of people that died directly due to Covid19. Last year the common flu killed 600,000 people worldwide. When looking at the current data and attempting to account for variables currently ignored I don't think Covid19 will get to 600,000 before being mostly eradicated.
Ok. It is absolutely very infectious, no argument there. The deaths and the death rate are not quite as cut and dry. First, different countries classify conditions and cause of death in different ways. A great example of this is the difference between how Germany and Italy represent death counts. In Italy, if a 85 year old man is in the hospital with multiple organ failure already near death and he happens to catch Covid19 hours before his death, his death is ruled as a fatality due to Covid19. Germany on the other hand only rules the death due to Covid19 if it was the direct cause of death. This is one of many reasons for the difference in death totals between the two countries. As confirmation of this, Italy has come out and said “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus.” So with Italy's official death count being ~6800 that means the actual number of people that have died because of covid19 numbers roughly 820, according to their National Institute of Health. With their current confirmed positive case total being 69,000, that puts the death rate against confirmed cases at 1.1%
Next, the 1.1% death rate is being measured against cases that were confirmed with a positive test. The people that we test tend to be the most serious cases. Both of these conditions will artificially increase the mortality rate. In order to measure the mortality rate we need some idea of total number of cases. Right now there are 294k confirmed positives with 13,000 (4%) in serious condition worldwide. That means 96% of the people who test positive have mild or no symptoms at all. What does that compute to across the worldwide population of people who have mild or no symptoms but don't get tested? It's entirely likely there are many 10s of millions of cases worldwide at the moment which means the true rate of serious complication of death is significantly lower than 1.1%.
Here's is a critical scenario that I don't hear people talking about. All of their projections and emergency plans hinge on the projections of incomplete modelling and one thing blows the entire thing up. If they are wrong about the length of time this virus has been in the country and what they think is day 30 is actually day 60 or day 90, the entire picture changes. Especially with how this virus presents as ARDS, it could have gone unnoticed for quite a while. I think my family contracted this right after Christmas as we all got smashed with a 3 week illness with the exact symptoms currently seen. If this is true that means there have probably been millions of infections over the last couple months in this country. The apparent prevalence of mild or asymptomatic cases only increases the possibility that it's been here a long time and the true numbers of infected are much higher. This also would mean the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than currently assumed on top of the variables just discussed.
Along with hydroxychloroquine and the zpak we will also be able to start doing plasma transfusions soon from recovered patients giving the most gravely ill active antibodies to immediately begin fighting the virus. There are multiple things in the pipeline that we're going to start assaulting the virus with.
So the current official global death count is roughly 19,000 and due to reasons already discussed, we know that number to be inaccurate if you want to know the number of people that died directly due to Covid19. Last year the common flu killed 600,000 people worldwide. When looking at the current data and attempting to account for variables currently ignored I don't think Covid19 will get to 600,000 before being mostly eradicated.
Because all of their decisions are based off incomplete models. If what they think is day 30 for us is actually day 60 or day 90 then there are likely millions of people who have contracted the virus and we are seeing that peak they were trying to avoid right now. When this is all said and done I’ll bet money the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than currently assumed.
Maybe that's true. Maybe it's another super trustworthy doctor like this guy. All I know is I'm not taking Vice's word for it.
We are starting tomorrow. In the same vein (ha) we should expedite the use of plasma from recovered patients onto people currently suffering to give them immediately working antibodies to attack the virus. The process is currently being fast tracked through the FDA but is still several weeks away from use.
lol no one cares loser