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The data in 5757 is not complete. Neither is 5758.
We WITHDRAW this report.
Our assumption on 'Absentee' in 5757 was wrong. 'Absentee' in 5757 means absentee/mail-in ballots. A VRN showing up in both 5757 and 5758 is legitimate.
Thanks for reposting this. We need to spread the truth.
Uploaded a revised doc "Wisconsin 2020 General Election Analysis Version Nov 30 2020.pdf" and a "README.txt".
That is a mistake on my part preparing the doc. Our understanding is that 'At Polls' was used when an in-person ballot was casted, while 'Absentee' was used when a voter casted an absentee ballot in person. I'll mend the doc.
I have uploaded vrn_inperson_and_bymail.txt to the shared link. The file contains VRNs showing in both 5757 and 5758 in the 2020 general election.
The SOS of Wisconsin has to explain why 740,070 VRNs in both in person and main-in ballots.
Your 2nd possibility might explains it.
Our assumption was not right here. We might need to adjust the numbers here if absentee ballots and mail-in ballots were interchangeable.
Our total ballots is 3,179,274 by adding all 5757 in 'Absentee' or 'At Polls' and all 5758 active returned.
If you outer join 5757 and 5758 on Voter Reg Numbers for the 2020 general election, you will get 2,560,102 unique VRNs.
What condition did you outer join 5757 and 5758?
We do not have an authoritative way to tell if a ballot was counted. There were 3.28 million or more ballots were counted with only about 2.56 million voters.
Do you know what 'Absentee' meant? Is it a mail ballot or an in person ballot?
I found an error in the analysis PDF. Uploaded a correction PDF to the link as well.
A big thank you to bear__aware. With your data we uncovered that 740,076 mail-in ballots were casted by 740,070 voter reg numbers and those numbers also casted 740,070 in-person ballots. The result was published in https://thedonald.win/p/11QSH1uwCo/uncovered-massive-wisconsin-vote/
A PDF of the analysis and a correction PDF were posted on https://gofile.io/d/yr6INT
The sql script is too big to post. Only post the script without sql commands to creating the tables inperson and bymail.
load data local infile '/tmp/2152_5757.txt' into table inperson fields terminated by '\t' lines terminated by '\r\n' ignore 1 rows;
load data local infile '/tmp/2152_5758.txt' into table bymail fields terminated by '\t' lines terminated by '\r\n' ignore 1 rows;
CREATE INDEX vrn ON inperson(Voter Reg Number);
CREATE INDEX vrn ON bymail(Voter Reg Number);
-- collect all in person ballots for the 2020 general election. CREATE TABLE inperson_ballots AS SELECT * FROM inperson WHERE November2020 IN ('At Polls', 'Absentee');
CREATE INDEX vrn ON inperson_ballots (Voter Reg Number);
-- collect all mail-in ballots for the 2020 general election.
CREATE TABLE bymail_ballots
AS
SELECT *
FROM bymail
WHERE Election Name = '2020 General Election';
CREATE INDEX vrn ON bymail_ballots (Voter Reg Number);
-- collect unique voter reg numbers from both mail-in and in-person ballots
CREATE TABLE vrn_inperson_bymail
AS
SELECT DISTINCT Voter Reg Number
FROM inperson_ballots
UNION
SELECT DISTINCT Voter Reg Number
FROM bymail_ballots;
CREATE INDEX vrn ON vrn_inperson_bymail (Voter Reg Number);
-- collect returned active mail-in ballots
CREATE TABLE bymail_active_returned_ballots
AS
SELECT *
FROM bymail_ballots
WHERE Ballot Status = 'Active' AND Ballot Status Reason = 'Returned';
CREATE INDEX vrn ON bymail_active_returned_ballots(Voter Reg Number);
-- collect voter reg numbers assocaited with a in-person ballot and a returned active mail-in ballot
CREATE TABLE vrn_inperson_and_bymail
AS
SELECT DISTINCT inperson_ballots.Voter Reg Number
FROM inperson_ballots
INNER JOIN bymail_active_returned_ballots
ON inperson_ballots.Voter Reg Number = bymail_active_returned_ballots.Voter Reg Number;
CREATE INDEX vrn ON vrn_inperson_and_bymail(Voter Reg Number);
-- Remove empty Voter Reg Number
DELETE FROM vrn_inperson_and_bymail WHERE Voter Reg Number = '';
-- collect in-person ballots with a voter reg number also has a returned active mail-in ballot
CREATE TABLE inperson_ballots_also_bymail
AS
SELECT inperson_ballots.*
FROM inperson_ballots
INNER JOIN vrn_inperson_and_bymail
ON inperson_ballots.Voter Reg Number = vrn_inperson_and_bymail.Voter Reg Number;
CREATE INDEX county ON inperson_ballots_also_bymail (County);
CREATE INDEX vrn ON inperson_ballots_also_bymail (Voter Reg Number);
-- collect returned active mail-in ballots with a voter reg number also has an in-person ballots
CREATE TABLE bymail_ballots_also_inperson
AS
SELECT bymail_active_returned_ballots.*
FROM bymail_active_returned_ballots
INNER JOIN vrn_inperson_and_bymail
ON bymail_active_returned_ballots.Voter Reg Number = vrn_inperson_and_bymail.Voter Reg Number;
CREATE INDEX county ON bymail_ballots_also_inperson (County);
CREATE INDEX vrn ON bymail_ballots_also_inperson (Voter Reg Number);
-- collect information about voter reg numbers
CREATE TABLE vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name
AS
SELECT
bymail.Voter Reg Number,
bymail.County,
bymail.LastName,
bymail.FirstName,
bymail.MiddleName,
bymail.Suffix,
bymail.Voter Status,
bymail.Address1,
bymail.Address2,
bymail.Phone Number,
bymail.Email Address,
bymail.Date Ballot Returned,
inperson.November2020
FROM inperson_ballots_also_bymail
AS inperson
INNER JOIN bymail_ballots_also_inperson
AS bymail
ON inperson.Voter Reg Number = bymail.Voter Reg Number
ORDER BY bymail.County, LastName, FirstName, MiddleName, Suffix;
CREATE INDEX county ON vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name (County);
CREATE INDEX vrn ON vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name (Voter Reg Number);
-- collect distribution of ballots with a voter reg number associated with an in-person ballot and one or more mail-in ballot(s)
CREATE TABLE distribution_by_county_ballots_inperson_and_bymail
AS
SELECT County, count(*) AS Count
FROM vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name
GROUP BY County
ORDER BY County;
-- Uncomment following statement to dump table vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name to a file.
/*
SELECT 'Voter Reg Number','County','LastName','FirstName','MiddleName','Suffix','Voter Status','Address1','Address2','Phone Number','Email Address','Date Ballot Returned','November2020'
UNION ALL
SELECT Voter Reg Number,County,LastName,FirstName,MiddleName,Suffix,Voter Status,Address1,Address2,Phone Number,Email Address,Date Ballot Returned,November2020
FROM vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name
INTO OUTFILE '/tmp/voter_records_inperson_and_bymail.txt'
FIELDS TERMINATED BY '\t' LINES TERMINATED BY '\n';
*/
Generated Tables
The generated tables are explained in the following table.
Table Name Description
inperson Table is imported from 2152_5757.txt. It contains voter registration information and in person ballots for past elections.
bymail TAble is imported from 2152_5758.txt. It contains all mail-in ballots for the past elections.
inperson_ballots In person ballots for the 2020 general election.
bymail_ballots Mail-in ballots regardless of ballot status for the 2020 general election.
vrn_inperson_bymail Voter reg numbers in tables inperson_ballots and bymail_ballots.
bymail_active_returned_ballots Mail-in ballots returned with active ballot status for the 2020 general election.
vrn_inperson_and_bymail Voter reg numbers used in both in-person ballots and mail-in ballots.
inperson_ballots_also_bymail In-person ballots with voter reg numbers also used in mail-in ballots.
bymail_ballots_also_inperson Mail-in ballots with voter reg numbers also used in in-person ballots.
vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name Combined voter information from tables inperson_ballots_also_bymail and bymail_ballots_also_inperson.
distribution_by_county_ballots_inperson_and_bymail Distribution by county of voter information counts in table vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name.
Appendix Instructions Here is an instruction to load the raw data into a mysql database and create a few tables. The results are saved in tables.
Here are the steps:
-
Download 5757_DataRequest.zip and 5758_DataRequest.zip shared in https://gofile.io/d/XwcWGo.
-
Extract 2152_5757.txt from 5757_DataRequest.zip. $ unzip 5757_DataRequest.zip
-
Extract 2152_5758.txt from 5758_DataRequest.zip. $ unzip 5757_DataRequest.zip
-
Move 2152_5757.txt and 2152_5758.txt to /tmp directory. $ ln 2152_5757.txt 2152_5758.txt /tmp $ chmod o+r /tmp/2152_5757.txt /tmp/2152_5758.txt
-
Create a database ‘wi’. Or you can use a user other than root to create the database. $ mysql -u root -p -e "CREATE DATABASE wi;"
-
Save the script at the end of this document to a file ‘wi.sql’.
-
Replace ‘db’ with the correct user and run the following command to analyze the data and create a few tables. $ mysql -u db -p wi < wi.sql
-
The total number of voter reg numbers that participated in the 2020 general elections. SELECT count(*) FROM vrn_inperson_bymail;
-
The total number of in-person ballots. SELECT count(*) FROM inperson_ballots;
-
The total number of returned active mail-in ballots. SELECT count(*) FROM bymail_active_returned_ballots;
-
The total number of all ballots relevant in this document by adding the numbers from step 10 and 9.
-
The total number of in-person ballots with voter reg numbers that were also used to cast mail-in ballots. SELECT count(*) FROM inperson_ballots_also_bymail;
-
The total number of mail-in ballots with voter reg numbers that were also used to cast in-person ballots. SELECT count(*) FROM bymail_ballots_also_inperson;
-
The distribution by county. SELECT * FROM distribution_by_county_ballots_inperson_and_bymail;
-
Play around with the data and have fun.
Conclusion
The integrity of the voting system in Wisconsin was compromised in the 2020 general election. There were widespread double-casted ballots spreading to 70 counties. Only 2 counties were spared. There were 740,070 voter reg numbers that were used to cast a total of 1,480,146 double-casted ballots (740,070 in-person ballots and 740,076 mail-in ballots). In our model 1,480,146 ballots were 46.55% of the total 3,179,274 ballots. Of all participating VRNs 740,070 double-casting VRNs accounted for 23.78%.
Scope of Double-Casted Ballots
We collected all double-casting voter reg numbers, their mail-in ballots and in-person ballots into a table vrn_info_inperson_and_bymail_order_by_county_and_name. Each row in the table is corresponding to a double-casted mail-in ballot.
We also collected the distribution by county into a table distribution_by_county_ballots_inperson_and_bymail.
The mail-in ballots were widely spread to 70 counties out of total 72 counties. The count is shown in the following table. Milwaukee County 97474 Dane County 78599 Waukesha County 70283 Racine County 34063 Brown County 30208 Ozaukee County 27285 Marathon County 26586 Washington County 25432 Outagamie County 24303 Winnebago County 23898 Kenosha County 20157 Sheboygan County 19822 Manitowoc County 17403 St. Croix County 17269 Walworth County 15094 Rock County 14818 Jefferson County 14335 Wood County 12833 La Crosse County 11597 Columbia County 9919 Chippewa County 9555 Marinette County 9020 Oconto County 7488 Douglas County 7364 Eau Claire County 7308 Fond du Lac County 6918 Sauk County 6169 Barron County 5876 Dodge County 5870 Portage County 5800 Waupaca County 4964 Pierce County 4931 Iowa County 4703 Shawano County 3863 Monroe County 3767 Ashland County 3633 Green County 3548 Adams County 3363 Burnett County 2909 Grant County 2835 Oneida County 2832 Juneau County 2735 Kewaunee County 2656 Polk County 2603 Calumet County 2496 Taylor County 2173 Sawyer County 2169 Trempealeau County 2094 Lincoln County 2076 Price County 1833 Vernon County 1699 Crawford County 1367 Dunn County 1281 Forest County 1254 Buffalo County 1022 Florence County 981 Richland County 977 Door County 902 Waushara County 777 Lafayette County 753 Washburn County 649 Green Lake County 617 Menominee County 522 Iron County 488 Bayfield County 487 Pepin County 357 Marquette County 311 Jackson County 302 Clark County 260 Vilas County 141
Counting Voter Reg Numbers And Valid Ballots
The total number of valid ballots in our model is 3,179,274. The number can be divided into 1,948,747 valid mail-in ballots and 1,230,527 valid in-person ballots.
We counted unique voter reg numbers in the selected mail-in ballots and in-person ballots. There are a total of 2,560,102 voter reg numbers.
Before looking further, we found there was a discrepancy of 619,172 between valid ballots and all participating voter reg numbers. By pigeonhole principle, some voter reg numbers were used to cast two or more ballots.
So we dug into the data a little more. We collected the unique voter reg numbers in a table. Every voter reg number in the table was used to cast at least one in-person ballots and at least one mail-in ballots. We removed an empty ‘voter reg number’ entry from a table of voter reg numbers to make the analysis simpler.
We arrived at a discovery that 740,070 voter reg numbers were used to cast 740,070 in-person ballots and 740,076 mail-in ballots.
These 740,070 voter reg numbers out of were responsible for 1,480,146 ballots. These ballots should have not been counted as valid ballots.
What is A Valid Ballot in Our Model?
Before moving forward we make a definition of valid ballots in the analysis. A valid ballot is a ballot that was counted in the election result.
Criteria for Valid Mail-In Ballots
We only chose valid mail-in ballots that are ‘Active’ in ‘Ballot Status’ and ‘Returned’ in “Ballot Status Reason’. We don’t know if other kinds of mail-in ballots could be counted as valid ballots. To play safe we did not count uncertain active ballots with Ballot Status Reasons other than ‘Returned’ or inactive ballots.
Criteria for Valid In-Person Ballots
We only chose in-person ballots with a field ‘November2020’ being ‘At Polls’ or ‘Absentee’ as valid ballots. Our understanding of ballots of ‘At Polls’ were casted on November 3rd and ‘Absentee’ on days earlier.
Analysis Data This analysis is based on Wisconsin election data 5757_DataRequest.zip and 5758_DataRequest.zip shared in https://gofile.io/d/XwcWGo.
5757_DataRequest.zip contains all registered voters from past elections. It also has the in-person voting records from the past elections including the 2020 general election.
5758_DataRequest.zip contains all mail-in voting records from past elections including the 2020 general election. It also contains the ballots sent out and never returned, returned and not counted and other conditions.
We imported the data into two tables in a mysql server. We are able to confirm that all voter reg numbers in the mail-in ballot table can be found in the registration and in-person voting record table.
Big Thanks to The Wisonsin Data Buyer We express our big thanks to the buyer, bear__aware, of the complete Wisconsin voter data. Bear__aware shared the purchased voter data for all to study them. The generosity enabled us to uncover this election integrity compromise.
Donated again. Supporting him is supporting our 2A rights.