Where is the 50% EV model from? If it's from TargetEarly, those figures were just projections (and from a Democratic funded source no less).
Most states do not provide information regarding political affiliation of early voters. ProjectElect contains just the facts.
ETA: There may be other sources I don't know about. Also, I don't mean to rag on TargetEarly and I don't believe they are some psychops operation from the left but many on here seem confused to believe it is set in stone whereas it should be treated as another pollster using a different methodology.
Trump didn't need an October surprise because the media was lying all along and he was always ahead.
This is the congressional district containing Orange County cities Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, etc. It looks like OC is flipping back Republican.
I hate that we are still publicizing these FAKE polls after Early Voting figures have released and we can make independent projections.
Validating these numbers are like letting the pollsters have their cake (rag on Trump/manipulate the election) and eat it too (not be nonsense on election day).
They don't even have the Comey investigation to use as an excuse for their massive poll fluctuations this time. Caught with their pants down.
This Twitter post is so absurd I thought it was satire until reading the comments on this thread. Now I'm plain confused.
Trump didn't do the most that he could with regards to the pandemic but there actually wasn't much he could change as president.
Coronavirus is 95%+ managed at the state level due to US government structure and most of the lauded left leaning states following "science" completely blew the coop in terms of deaths and infections per capita.
Also, many efforts Trump made to control the pandemic was interfered/sabotaged by liberals such as the distribution of masks (being painted as stealing masks from hospitals) or using US political leverage to secure supplies internationally.
Thinking a Democrat would have handled the pandemic better is delusional. Especially not 0.5 - 1 term Biden who is ready to drop dead.
Statistics are largely bullshit, and largely useless.
Statistics work but no one adheres to them outside of the Statistics field. Research journals/academia adhere to statitical principles maybe 25-50% because they have incentive to push breakthrough research.
Numbers presented by the media (especially liberal) plainly don't use statistics. Some people say their data is "oversampled" but I'm skeptical to the point of whether anyone was polled at all. <10% adherence
Why are we still looking at polls? Many of the recent posts are about early voting figures. The gig is up. We can extrapolate/predict trends from early voting.
The polls could keep lying or they can try to tell the truth but it doesn't really matter at this point.
They know Biden is going to croak. There are rumors that he may step down after 2 years or he won't run for re-election.
Seriously, Dems, what the hell are you voting for? You're entrusting the country in the hands of a guy who clearly can't handle or want to do the job.
Trump gave up so much to serve as president and he wants to serve out 2 terms in his age.
Calling it "tightening in polls" is giving them too much credit. These pundits know very well the polls are be completely fabricated and are just there to shape opinion or generate page clicks.
Dems likely aren't even ahead in Pennsylvania. Both candidates have leaked itineraries and neither Biden nor Trump would devote so much time to Pennsylvania in the coming weekend if it wasn't a close race.
This would be a third source validating Trump's surge in black support at the 25% to 30% levels - Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and now University of New Orleans.
Also explains the number of black rappers supporting Trump. This is absolutely amazing if true.
There is absolutely no incentive for public polls to tell the truth. Their objective is to make the most money.
They do so by inventing numbers to attract page clicks if they are not already directly funded by the media and/or the establishment.
I'm surprised there are so many signs out there in Pennsylvania. I have never seen either a Trump or Biden lawn sign out here is California. A lot of folks driving around with Trump flags and waving Trump signs at intersections, though.
There are polls out there floating from multiple sources (Rasmussen and Trafalgar) suggesting that Trump will outperform significantly in black vote. Rasmussen was the one that gave 31% and Trafalgar predicted >20% in multiple battleground states.
I don't consider pollsters trustworthy but when there's smoke... I'm not about to write off their findings completely even if its a little eye brow raising.
Note these are two different pollsters claiming them. Rasmussen was first to break the 31% figure and now Trafalgar are breaking lower but similarly extremely elevated levels of black support from individual states. This adds credence to the estimates.
I'm not sure if this is beneficial for the campaign. Even if his rallies are tiny, if any of his voters watch his events for a couple hours on the internet then that's a couple of hours less time they have to vote.