Ok before I go further, the only storm we've had before this one that has been of consequence was Bertha. Short summary: it formed overnight, took everyone by surprise, delayed a NASCAR Race, some flooding things, and fizzled away like my chances of dating my crush.

Tropical Depression 13 formed yesterday and has meandered in the southern Bay of Campeche. Its movement is very slow and will continue to be slow as it is embedded in a monsoon-like gyre in central america. This gyre should shift it south and have a close shave, if not a landfall. Land interaction will remain a big uncertainty with this storm as the more land interaction equals a weaker storm. If it does make landfall and dissipates it will still leave behind remnants in the gyre which could form a completely separate storm. By then, focus turns northward into the gulf.

At this point, models depict a tropical system regardless if its TD13/Cristobal in the Gulf moving northward. Current forecast calls for Tropical Storm strength winds and earliest landfall in the Gulf Coast sometime around Sunday/Monday. See the NHC site for more details. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Cristobal

UPDATE: TS Cristobal has been officially named by the NHC