Polls often lie. Current events may also affect the outcome of the election. With that out of the way, this poll vastly weighs in favor of heavy Democrat turnout, but they still have to give it to Trump by 1.2%
- Distribution 36D, 35R, 28 independent
- 2016 Turnout: 32D, 33R, 34 independent
With the adjusted historical turnout numbers and their demographic numbers, Trump leads by 2.2%.
But the real takeaways:
- Trump's support among Latino voters increased to 45% from 30%
- Support among Black voters increased to 16.7% from 10%
- College educated vote now in Trump's favor (YUGE?)
- Among Democrats, Trump is favored over Biden by 16.7% (YUGE! More than doubles the 8% D vote he received in 2016)
DON'T FORGET TO VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!
But also, I am ready for the Florida bloodbath. Source: https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-way-ahead-in-sunshine-state.php
We had major stock market gains prior to this that provided a good amount of cushion to absorb the worst drops. Perhaps that makes it look worse, but so far there is still enough capital in the market that we're above the highs of 4-5 years ago.
Think about this:
- What industries are actually shut down? Tourism, travel, etc.?
- Whose workplaces have actually ceased all operations? Restaurants?
- So I ask... Do those places, if shuttered for 8-15% of the year make up 30% of our GDP or total market cap for the year?
- Do they even make up a corresponding 8-15%? Maybe the worst is still "yet to come", but I'm still waiting for the doom and gloom China supply chain issues to crop up.
- "Parcel volume fell 2.4% among manufacturing customers in February 2020 compared to a year ago"
- "Overall, roughly 20% of U.S. retailers’ supply chains are exposed to China"
- So roughly 0.5% of our overall supply chain has disappeared for a couple months?
- Travel and Tourism makes up 8-9% of our annual GDP - so assuming a closure on those services for 60 days, that's 1.3% of our annual GDP gone.
I'm not seeing where these sectors add up to justify a 30% drop in the markets or a pending recession. People losing their jobs and a strain on small business can make this worse, but it's panic selling and we're simultaneously completing a large retracement after a huge bull run.
Sources
- CNBC: https://bit.ly/2TUBcwD
- Tourism and Travel: https://bit.ly/2Qo6cD4
- US GDP (~$21T): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States