"Balkanization" is the best new word I've heard all year.
Gender Studies =/= Science
Science = Science
I got a corporate social responsibility class this semester. We had the "woke" Powerpoint last week. Had a Fortune 500 HR person in our class give a speech. They have their pronouns in their LinkedIn.
A landslide is the only way, guys. The only way.
This is how Nate Silver gets his stuff:
- Pollsters who poll
- Pollsters then compile data
- Sell it off to MSM/publishers
- 538 gets those publications
[INSERT NATE SILVER]
- Nate Silver interprets those publications as an "expert."
The first 2 steps have become not only the most difficult things to do, but are also subject to virtual fraud when you look at how they're done and where precisely they poll (oversampling Dems, improper weights of non-white voters, more urban than rural, etc).
His map is about as accurate as one of those city map rugs you give to 5-year-olds. It's all imaginary.
Who is 4chan?
Going by 2016 numbers and independent polling information we have:
- The Democrats go into ED with certain EV total targets to make them competitive versus the regular swarm of GOP voters on ED
- This year, VBM has replaced much of these Democrat early voters, so the "massive Democratic lead by ED" has already been pre-processed. We know where they stand almost immediately.
- Democrats, despite their overall lead, are in a horrible position right now pre-ED.
- Their overall numbers have plateaued and statewide they are ~350k ballots below their required minimum competitive target.
- Given Democrats ALWAYS have more votes through EV, this is a massive problem for them. Their November 3rd position will be worse. We might have Florida called within 2-3 hours of the polls closing.
Dwindling fast. They were expecting somewhere upwards of a 150k VBM lead. Every single county in FL has had record GOP turnout so far and statewide Dem targets are rising while Dem margins are slipping. It's a disaster for them with 10 days to go.
And the best part? There's still more available GOP voters in those counties than Dems on election day. More voters = a larger available electorate = more room to succeed.
A little more science behind each:
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According to most voter preference data, COVID is either #3 or #4 behind economy, jobs, law and order, etc. The anti-Trump COVID gamble has backfired.
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Good, because despite EV wisdom, Trump is performing AMAZINGLY
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Polling is fucking broken and we got the numbers to prove it now.
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C O P E
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Polling averages are actually showing more inaccuracy than ever. You can't have Biden +14 nationally but within MOE in every battleground state. C'mon man!
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"Don't listen to the news, you might change your mind"
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Campaign behavior is actually a fantastic way of determining the state of things, like 2016 Midwest campaigning and Biden in his basement for weeks.
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Actually somewhat true! But he's only saying that now because for the first time ever, EV data is blowing up in the face of the DNC and they can't run a numbers-based validation circlejerk piece.
AMERICANS FOR TRUMP
Muslims who are peaceful don't want radical Islamic terrorism making them look like terrorists.
Blacks who know real racism don't want BLM bringing it all back.
Hispanics who are safe don't want MS-13 and traffickers entering their communities.
Urban+rural whites who aren't racist don't want to be demonized into it.
Jews who know real anti-Semitism don't want war in the Middle East.
but sir that's not verified
ANY POLL'S A GOAL
FREE PEPE!!!
When people said "Obama/Biden hates the country" I wasn't really sure.
Now I'm sure.
The Philly outskirts have turned into a twist of fate. Back when BLM was growing in June, people brought up history about the bomb attack by police decades ago as a way to demonize the Philly PD of today.
Per Trafalgar, some of the largest disagreements about defunding the police actually come from the black community itself.
Biden has been running radio ads in predominantly black neighborhoods - for the first time ever, in a community that is supposed to be extremely, extremely blue. Obama campaigning in Philly for Biden is a sign of desperate defense. Their internals are collapsing. Trump is making strides there. BLM didn't get the vote out like the Democrats wanted, and now it's crunch time.
That community will vote hard blue, but the question now is: how red will it really get?
That's not just "good," those are the best numbers ever recorded for Florida and the GOP going into election day.
When Trump said "I will show them" in regards to winning, we're about to see what he means when the machine is running at 100% power.
FYI: Our early voting numbers are looking incredible and Dem leads going into election day (that they desperately need) are becoming smaller and smaller each day.
Even in a metro area in a deep red state, I am part of that 60%. Just not safe in this area, too blue.
Every single world leader held to this same standard: guess i'll die
Or Republicans who voted for Biden. Reddit tells me there are MILLIONS! How could they possibly be wrong guys???
WE'RE ALL AMERICANS HERE
TAKE A COAT AND BUNDLE UP FELLOW PEDE!
Is there a specific tally of how much money Biden likely received from each nation, and is there evidence of tax evasion (or would that require more information)?
Two things though:
Be CAREFUL about EV, DO NOT call elections early based on them (Hillary tried to)
The red line above is the minimum competitive target for the state for Democrats in EV before November 3rd. They didn't even come close.
With all of this, it's suggested that the Democrats will be going into election day with the poorest early vote performance in decades. GOP always shows up more on election day.
Independent pollsters like Rich Baris confirm Indy votes are following enthusiasm trends (undecideds voting for Trump).
It's looking like Biden is fucked. However...
IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL IT'S OVER! VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!!!