I see no problem with this. Some Democrats are smart enough to realize that absentee voting is a far better choice then mail in voting while most Republicans likely plan to vote in person. Either way the fraud is minimal.
Election night turnout in 2016 was 35% Democrat, 33% Republican and 32% Independent.
Assuming the turnout is identical in November then they are under sampling Independents by 8 points and oversampling Democrats by 5 points. This is the equivalent of a 3-4 point increase for Trump.
Therefore the actual poll result is +2-3 Biden which is identical to 2016 with Hilary. The electoral college will do the rest.
So Nevada is definitely in play. I would consider it in the swing state stage with Maine that are 50-50 at this point to flip.
Minnesota and New Hampshire are going red while a landslide could push Colorado, New Mexico or Virginia to flip as well.