Not saying this is true, by any means, but it would fit with some other unusual things happening recently. Biden is suddenly being let in on briefings. The whole foot brace, and some people saying it's to hide a tracker. And come to think of it, his injury was supposedly caused by his dog. Long shot, but stranger conspiracy theories have proven to be true in the past.
In the sense that these are the most likely to flip first and put him over the top, yes. But I suspect WI and MI will follow eventually, possibly NV and VA, maybe even MN.
While I agree that we should audit every state's election at this point, we do need to make sure we win first, so I imagine it's a matter of strategic allocation of resources. PA's the biggest bang for the buck, GA is so close it should be easy to flip, MI has the chance of helping us win another senate seat, and AZ is so close many outlets haven't even called it yet.
Please stop making us look dumb by posting this. RCP hasn't changed anything, they never called PA, they've been at 259 this whole time. Someone managed to prank some well known folks on Twitter and they didn't do their due diligence before reposting it.
Well, my representative actually voted right here in Texas 26.
No, his inference was not sound. If his inference was sound, you could run the same equations on any of the responses and get at least similar results, some slight variation of a point or two because we’re only given nearest whole percent. But you get wildly varying results. His logic is fundamentally flawed, and either you didn’t understand the poll, or you don’t understand how to solve a system of linear equations.
Actually, it doesn't. The data is incomplete, it doesn't give the responses of people who don't identify as either republican or democrat. As such, x+y doesn't add up to 100%. We need data on that third group, z, representing independents, and without it, we cannot solve for x and y, or for their ratio to each other.
I ran the formula as OP did, assuming that there were no independents, for every line on the chart. Surprised and confident show 73% democrat. Angry gives 67% republican. Without more information, it's impossible to draw any kind of conclusion as to party makeup.
Unfortunately, your math is flawed, as there's no numbers for independents. The full formulas would be:
26=40x+14y+az 74=60x+86y+(100-a)z
Furthermore, if I try the same math with the depressed/not depressed number, I get 56.25% republican, 43.75% democrat.
I don't know anyone saying 40%. I've heard 20% from quite a few, as high as 30% in a very few cases. I think you're referring to a single poll back in 2018 that gave Trump 40% approval among blacks. I don't know anyone who equated that to an expectation of the vote, as approval of Trump is a far cry from approval of republicans. Personally I expect a much higher black vote for Trump this time, but I'm thinking more in the 15% ball park, which is still enough to virtually guarantee a win, all other variables held constant.
But I have to refer back to what Kim Klacik said, we can't just abandon these populations to the Democrats, we have to keep trying to bring our message to them, chipping away, as she called it. Many of these people have never heard a conservative speak, or heard a conservative argument that wasn't a strawman presented by the media. If we just let the Democrats keep brainwashing them without even offering a counter-argument that can give them an escape from that, then of course they'll continue to be brainwashed. Even if we turn the numbers just slightly each cycle, that's still a win in the long term.
I suppose, eventually, when friction wore the metronomes down to the point they stopped moving, if you want to call that order. I wouldn’t but feel free to.
Yea, no. That’s classic human bias, seeing patterns and connections where there are none. If this were some universal law or principle in action, you could place the same metronomes the same distance apart on the floor and get the same results. Or on 32 separate small stands. But you can’t get the same result that way. And with people, reactions to a truck with a couple flags are going to vary wildly, most people I know, even the very lefty ones, wouldn’t even react at all to that. Any illusions of this synchronization in humans is just the result of several people with similar physical capabilities to do so responding to the same stimulus. IE, several people stand from their seats in a theater within a fraction of a second of each other, because they all saw the credits of the movie start to roll at the same time.
It’s internet culture at this point, the text equivalent of a salute. I’m sure everyone here intends it to be genuinely respectful.
You sound like the spitting image of how Jesus described the Pharisees. A white washed tomb, presenting an outward appearance of purity while being filled with death and decay.
...and stingrays.
New Castle county, and specifically, Wilmington, are completley Pro-Biden. 90% of people south of that county line think he's an embarrassment to the state on the national stage. Grew up in Sussex county, moved to Texas for work in 2016. Love it here, even living in a mini left stronghold college town where I do.
While true in general, MJ was not. Razorfist does some excellent videos covering the topic and how the same media that twists the truth for their corporate masters against Trump made MJ out to be a molester, likely to help bankrupt him, in hopes that Sony could get their grubby mitts on the catalog of music he had the rights too, which they eventually did. Don't believe the fake news media, my friend.
For completely selfish reasons I’m hoping the stock market stays low for just a bit longer. My work has a stock sharing program where they give you a discounted price and use a bank loan to buy 10 times what you paid for. Your initial investment is guaranteed by the bank in exchange for dividends for 5 years, and you have to hold the stocks for that long. The starting price is set in early May, and based on their payout formulas, at the end of five years, I stand to make over 5 times my initial investment(limited to around $900 a year, sadly) if the price is set where it is now and only bounces back to where it was before the corona scare. Could get up to over 7 or 8 times if it increases from there at the rate it has since 2016.
Multiple things can be true simultaneously. Yes, the media and Democrats are playing this up, using this to attack the President unfairly, and stoking panic where it isn't due, solely for political gain. Yes, a lot of people who support the President are understating the issue and sticking their heads in the sand because they're overly sensitive to fake news attacks after years of BS from the media.
I'm sick of hearing this is just a flu. So was the Spanish flu. I'm not saying to go punch out someone's granny over a roll of toilet paper. I'm just saying be prepared to take care of yourself and your family. Get a week or two worth of non-perishable food you can throw in a closet to use in an emergency, and you can always eat it later if you don't need it.
This may blow over and be nothing in a few weeks. The virus could mutate tomorrow into an asymptomatic variant that inoculates everybody. Alternatively, it could mutate into something far worse. The further it spreads, the greater the chance of some new mutation. Or it could stay just as it is and that's bad enough. It doesn't have to kill a large number of people to have significant effects on supply chains and economies. Just sickening a significant fraction of the population too much to work for a week or two at the same time does that. Not the end of civilization, but it needs to be taken seriously, which despite what the media says, the President is doing. If this wasn't serious, Trump wouldn't have put his second in command at the head of the team covering this.
You say that as if there aren't plenty of cases of starving humans turning to cannibalism. At the end of the day, we're all animals, and we all will do what we have to in order to survive. You trap any animal, cat, dog, anything that can eat meat, in a house with that it can't get out of with the body of its owner, with no other source of food, it doesn't matter how much of a bond they had, eventually they're going to eat the only available source of food. Cue footage of Alex Jones talking about how he'll eat his neighbors.