I just received somewhat good news a few hours ago from Predictit:
Thank you for your message. In the event that the final certified or official results do turn out as you predict, you certainly should contact us for good-faith resolution of your dispute, in accordance with Section 13 of PredictIt’s terms of service to which you have agreed.
At that time, we would ask that you please identify which markets are the subject of your complaint. if PredictIt has in fact settled for the wrong outcome, and you owned shares in the correct one when the market closed, then proper restitution would be appropriate.
Thank you very much for your interest and participation in this academic project.
The PredictIt Settlement Committee
I paid everything with a credit card sooooo I suppose I could seek resolution with them if they completely fuck me over, but we'll see what happens. I'm still incredibly upset with the inadequate notice and unfair and arbitrary decisions that artificially hurt Trump shareholders, but things might still work out. Not as good as they should have... but we'll see.
Honestly this seems like it could lead to a class action lawsuit either way. It was a completely artificial move made well after they were accepting trades of certified states and before the markets were set to shift with court cases or legislatures. They allowed people to bet on judicial proceedings but shut down the markets before those could happen so we were hurt even if Trump wins the popular vote and we receive our winnings. We could have earned more potentially playing the market, which was far from over. The market was set to go up and up even if Trump didn't win.
As far as them being based in NZ I'm not sure. They are licensed here in the US so I imagine they would have to abide by US law.
There was a severely inadequate notice. Predictit allowed bets even after states certified their own votes. I'll tell you. Because they allow for judicial proceedings.
My question is how is it fair or appropriate to allow users to bet into these markets except unless people were betting on judicial proceedings? In the rules none of these markets had a deadline--at least the ones that concern me didn't. For weeks they allowed people to bet into these markets with no notice on settlement dealdines, and when they finally did create a notice there it was basically hidden and there was an inadequate amount of time.
They artificially deflated the market just days before it was set to inflate with court proceedings.
This seems worse than negligent.
I'd be fine losing money if Trump actually lost the popular vote or even if courts didn't act by Jan 20 given that Predictit gave users an adequate deadline... but they didn't allow for the market to play out.
At this point I think whether or not Trump wins or loses there needs to be a class action lawsuit against Predictit for negligence / corruption / communication. Please let me know if anybody has started one and/or if I can join.
Predictit allowed betting long after the media "officially" called these states. They allowed betting after 100% reporting. And they allowed betting even after states officially certified their popular vote. What do electoral votes have to do with the popular vote certification? Why was the 14th arbitrarily chosen as a date to close the markets? People were not betting on a fraudulent popular vote winner. We voted on the popular vote... period.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
By allowing people to bet into these markets under these circumstances there is an implicit agreement to allow betting on the judicial proceedings. How is it fair and appropriate to allow people to bet into these markets for weeks while waiting on ongoing judicial announcements only to close the markets just days before Supreme Court and SCOTUS hearings? They likewise closed markets of states that on Monday we learned had 68% error rate in Dominion machines, signature verification audit in GA, etc. plus the massive amounts of evidence we learned previously.
Not only were they implicitly encouraging users to bet on judicial proceedings by allowing trades, but when they announced the Dec 14th date of when they would "begin" closing state markets they did not specify states or ongoing rules. While you could possibly argue that ALL states were implied in the email, it would be hard to argue that this was an action taken in good faith given the circumstances and inadequate lack of notice.
Some markets, such as the market to whether or not Fox would un-call any race had a deadline. Most did not have deadlines and many people, myself included, would never have purchased shares if I had known there would be an artificial deadline that goes against its own market rules regarding legislation.
While you COULD argue that Predictit gave users an opportunity to sell the shares, this is not fair or appropriate either. By arbitrarily ending these markets this action artificially deflated the Trump market and made it harder to sell.
Further, there was not a fair or appropriate notice given to users. A single email hidden among dozens of mostly-irrelevant news updates was all I received plus a pretty out-of-the-way update on the homepage. With a website with a notification system and developers it's insane that they didn't go out of their way to make sure users saw this warning.
Between the initial "notice" on Dec 10 and the closing of the market on Dec 14 was less than a week. Even if Trump didn't win Supreme Court / SCOTUS cases simply getting into court would have raised the price of these shares making it more likely for Trump shareholders to cash out and make some money. These cases were just days away.
Everything adds up to Predictit taking arbitrary decisions to hurt Trump shareholders. The first paragraph of the bets read as follows:
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump wins the popular vote in the 2020 general election for U.S. President in one or more of the states of Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Notice how it does not say fraudulent vote. It says the winner of the popular vote. It is unreasonable to think that Predictit would pay out before the contests played out and doing so is an artificial manipulation of the market when there is a significant non-zero possibility that Trump flips the market. The damage here was 100% done by Predictit.
I'm full MAGA now, but in 2016 I voted for Trump only to fuck Hillary Clinton and cheating Dems and because I wanted justice for Assange.
At the time I wanted justice for Snowden, but he wasn't as much of a priority because at least he was living safely (enough) and not basically in prison.
Maybe NSA were the good guys all along? I really have no idea, and I'm not 100% convinced either way on Snowden, but he did go to China first. Was his job to leak to the deep state world that they were being surveilled? Or was he genuinely concerned on a constitutional level of the program? Or was he just a useful idiot? He is a smart guy, but even smart people can be useful idiots.
Anyway... I'm really hoping for an Assange pardon!
The list really starts to taper off after treason.
Notice of maladministration.
Notice of change in contract terms.
Notice of tossing a cigarette out of a moving vehicle.
Notice of unpaid parking tickets.
Notice of stealing a fountain drink refill.
😂😂😂 I kid I kid... but seriously treason took me by surprise. Tomorrow will be spicy.
Explain this then https://gnews.org/394035/
They knew about the hard drives
Maybe they are right about this...
• Mr. Lu De revealed FBI Director Wray has already been fired, and the interim FBI Director will be Rudy Giuliani. Wray was Wang Qishan’s pawn in the FBI, and he has been a total disaster.
Do whatever has to be done. You're the man to do it Mr. President. We trust you and are with you all the way.