According to the Hill, 62% of Democrats said they plan to or have to vote by mail. Only 28% of Republicans said the same. These numbers come from Friday of last week.
That means Republicans are over-performing expectations by about 50,000-100,000. These numbers only include states where mail-in voting isn't mandatory.
Republicans used to constitute 35-37% of the voting electorate in November. For the last few elections this number has dwindled to 32-33%. If we can get this type of turn-out then we would get 4/10 of the electorate with just Republicans and Democrats that support Trump -- not even thinking about independents.
The link I've provided at the bottom of this post categorizes the final result of the incumbent president as far back as Eisenhower (the top list) and compares it to the approval rating on Halloween night (the bottom list). The numbers start from Obama's 2012 victory and end with Eisenhower's 1956 re-election. The only outlier was Bill Clinton's 1996 victory because Ross Perot won nearly 8.5% of the vote. When you remove that year, there's a significant relationship between these two population samples in a T-Test. I used a 10% confidence level which in a simplified way means that 90% of the time the outcome is statistically tied to the approval rating.
If you click the link, you can see that the average approval rating matches the electoral outcome by +/- 2% in all but the 1996 example. I think it's safe to say the LP are running a weaker candidate than even Gary Johnson so we can comfortably call this a 2-way race. Gallup has Trump at a 46% approval rating. Gallup's approval rating was historically used as the standard in the 50s-90s. Today Rasmussen has almost the exact same number . If this trend holds, we should expect Trump's actual turnout as of TODAY to be between 44-46% without interpreting other variables. This range assumes that (a) the rate of "disenfranchisement" and fraud matches previous years and (b) there are no silent Trump voters in the APPROVAL poll.
For reference, in 2016 Donald J. Trump won 46.1% of the popular vote. He outmatched expectations in the aggregate by 1.5%. Traditionally enthusiasm gaps have allowed candidates to (at most) increase turnout 2-3% beyond the range. For example in 2012 Romney lost the race because pollsters didn't account for a high turnout for Obama amongst certain demographics even though he was tied in nearly half of the polls. That potentially means Trump's actual turnout is more likely to be 45-48%.
Before the left took that from us & instead forced these same children to have mental breakdowns? Julia used to play tackle football & the Nintendo with the boys. She was socially accepted. She got to enjoy badass fictional characters from franchises like Alien, Star Wars and Terminator. Nickelodeon cartoons like Doug and Hey Arnold taught these girls that being different was okay . It didn't come from deep psychological trauma and oppression.
Now if Julias even think about playing Cl of Duty they're rushed to the plastic surgeon to suck the fat out of their A-cups so it can be turned into a Frankenstein dick & stapled to her vulva.
Jefferson's political rivals said he would bring about “Murder, robbery, rape, adultery,” and that the air would be “rent with the cries of the distressed, the soil…soaked with blood and the nation black with crimes.”
In the 1890s William Hearst literally had newspapers making up entire interviews. He even invented fake battles during the Spanish American War to benefit the commanders he personally wanted to enter politics after their military tenure. The Associated Press even ran a story about insurgents taking over Havana because he wanted to influence the upcoming election. Theodore Roosevelt was highly critical of fake news from both corporations and trade unions which is why he was victim to an assassination attempt.
In 1940 FDR refused to debate the Republican candidate on radio because Wendel Wilkie was known as one of the most persuasive public speakers at the time & was very popular amongst black Americans - a new voting block FDR relied on in 1936 and 1940.
Lyndon B Johnson told black leaders that he would shut down the civil rights legislation if they didn't support the Democrats in 1964. Democrats had won the slight majority of black voters since 1936 when the Dixiecrats started to secede but 1l964 is the first election in which black voters turned out over 80% for Democrats because of his threats. He also had actual dick measuring contests where he pulled out his penis in front of congressmen. He also started rumors in the 50s that his rivals were secretly homosexual.
Democrats have used baseless rape accusations against several dozen Republicans - including Justice Thomas, a black man. Every modern Republican - including even Eisenhower - has been called a Nazi. Since 1968 Democrats in Congress have made public motions to declare Republican victories 'fake' - except for 72 and 84 when nearly every state voted Republican.
If you're already set on voting for Trump, you either love his personality or put up with it. But Biden has been skating on being the calm, reasonable man of ideas.
And now because he couldn't contain his emotions I'm seeing a lot of moderates who just vote blue instinctively saying they're not voting or that they're going 3rd party lol. I'm seeing dozens of people on my timeline and even both of my Democrat parents saying they're now going to skip voting for president. I can't be the only one.
"And I've given my presidential salary to the federal government every year since 2016. Thank you for pointing this out! I'm willing to lose potentially millions of dollars because I want to help my country. The Biden family gets bailed out by China and Ukraine. We don't have that luxury."