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TrumpWinz 2 points ago +2 / -0

Congress just approved 40 billion for ukraine bullshit.

There are about 100,000 schools in the US. At 50,000 a year they could have funded an armed security officer at every school for just nearly a decade.

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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +1 / -0

I'm going to look for long side entry in the back half of May for a bounce. But later this year I'm thinking 40% fall off the highs.

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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +1 / -0

Oddly enough I think that we get a summer time bounce probably starting next week. Then we get the big sell off probably in Q4.

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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +2 / -1

missiles locked on target

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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +1 / -0

There will never be self imposed fiscal discipline by any politicians, right, left, progressive or MAGA. It will never happen because the rewards to are too strong and the punishment upon the politician is non existent.

The only thing that will impose fiscal restraint upon the government is the almighty invisible hand of the markets. Interest rates have been trending lower for nearly 40 years. This trend is in the process of being reversed.

You can see the chart above which outlines the trend of the 10 year bond yields from 1988 through present day. The downtrend has been definitively broken this year.

The fundamental reason why rates will continue higher is because nominal yield will have to track inflation which is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. The money dumped into the system via the FED has created inflation, and the money continually printed and spent by treasury and congress on top of the excess money supply from 2020 will only accelerate the trend.

When rates get to 5% on the 10 year that implies that the annual interest payment on the cumulative 30 trillion dollars of US government debt would be $1.5 trillion.

That is 1.5 trillion in annual debt service on top of all the other shit that they spend every year. They will be forced to cut budgets.

Printing more money won't help. It will only make interest rates and debt service go up that much higher.

So, if you are looking for an end game on all this government lunacy, this is it.

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TrumpWinz 5 points ago +5 / -0

the only thing easier to grow than potatoes are beans.

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TrumpWinz 22 points ago +22 / -0

AND THEN FOR SOME REASON HITLER CAME TO POWER

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TrumpWinz 3 points ago +3 / -0

how can he keep getting away with this?

by wrmevlp
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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +1 / -0

OP thanks for linking to a paywall.

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TrumpWinz 2 points ago +2 / -0

Back in the internet bubble I worked at a couple of firms that exercised extremely loose definitions of "users" in order to show damn near parabolic growth and back then everyone was doing it and nobody seemed to give a shit because it was tech bubble V 1.0.

I would bet that bullshit Twitter accounts are probably at least 30% and as high as 80%.

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TrumpWinz 3 points ago +3 / -0

I'd say 90% of the support is from normies that just follow the prevailing narrative because they are incapable of independent thought. I base this on the people I personally know that parrot all of the MSM scripts whether it's covid, BLM, abortion, ukraine etc.

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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +1 / -0

Assessed value is just a formula that appraisers follow. It's right up there with Kelley Blue Book for cars.

What matters is how much people are willing to pay and for that I look at recent price trends for comparable plots in the area either on zillow or costar.

I brokered financing for asset backed lenders pre covid. Back then, with favorable interest rates and good economy, lenders would give max 75% LTV on developed real estate inside of 30 miles of a major metro.

Now with rates heading up and a shit economy I hear that the real MAX LTV is somewhere around 60-65% with very strict underwriting and you can forget about raw dirt unless you are a 5 star homebuilder with perfect credit.

The problem is that you are looking for some kind of "absolute value" asset class that is somehow sheltered from capital markets. That doesn't exist.

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TrumpWinz 1 point ago +1 / -0

So you're narrowing it down to income producing real estate? Have you seen where yields are headed?

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