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beholdtheflesh 40 points ago +40 / -0

It's posted: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/shocking-exclusive-caught-pennsylvania-results-show-statistically-impossible-pattern-behind-bidens-steal-caught

Looks like they did uncover some statistical strangeness...

Apparently the % of mail-in vote that Trump received was pretty much exactly 40% less than the election day vote...for all counties...

2
beholdtheflesh 2 points ago +2 / -0

confirmed.

All you have to do is click "Custom Range", leave the start date blank, and put in November 1st (of this year) as the end date.

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beholdtheflesh 1 point ago +1 / -0

That still doesn't make sense. In the graph I linked, take a look at the 50% Rep (straight party) plot. Since this is 50/50 - how can we explain that among the individual ticket votes, Trump underperformed by 5%, and Biden overperformed by 5%?

I'd expect, among the precincts that were 50/50, sometimes Trump would overperform, and sometimes he would underperform. But in this case, he always underperforms?

1
beholdtheflesh 1 point ago +1 / -0

The data provided by the Michigan counties includes the straight party and non-straight party numbers separately. He did not extrapolate or subtract using senate numbers, like you mentioned.

And yes, there is more cross-over possible, however Shiva addressed this in his analysis. Since this is precinct-by-precinct data, all located closely geographically, if there was any cross-over, you'd expect it to be relatively consistent across the different precincts. What he showed is that, apparently there was more cross-over to Biden the more straight party Republicans, and it was increasing linearly. Someone else also plotted the Dems, and showed that the more Dem straight party votes, the more Trump individual ballots appeared. See here: https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8SpHsTj/dr-shiva-algorithm-data-for-mi-c/

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beholdtheflesh 1 point ago +1 / -0

This isn't right. Your calculation for column D doesn't seem right.

Take row 5 as an example. 30% of straight ticket ballots went to Reps (and 70% went to Dems). You calculated column D using the theoretical 10% Dem votes to Trump times the 0.7 straight ticket to Dems to get 7%. This is not what Shiva calculated. His non-straight ballot calculation (aka column D) was a percentage of the non-straight-party ballots - column D should not depend at all on column B, since the data Shiva used for each of these columns is separate.

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beholdtheflesh 45 points ago +45 / -0

Interesting....

The Trump tweet referenced in one of the replies to that thread: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1312233807991496704

notice spelling of well with a capital I instead of an L

1
beholdtheflesh 1 point ago +1 / -0

The x-axis only takes into consideration the straight party ballots. Shiva explained in his video.

If there are 2000 ballots in a precinct, and 1000 of them are straight party, and of those 1000, 600 were for Reps, the precinct is plotted at 60% on the x-axis.

If the remaining 1000 (non straight party) went 40% Trump, the resulting Y-value for that precinct is (40% - 60% = -20%).

1
beholdtheflesh 1 point ago +1 / -0

The X-axis is the % of straight party votes that are Rep. The inverse is straight Dem. I.E. if you have 60% straight Rep, that equals 40% straight Dem.

Biden's votes are plotted on this graph, which Dr. Shiva did not do.

So just flip the chart horizontally and you get your answer.

15
beholdtheflesh 15 points ago +16 / -1

A little more analysis, if you want to understand the graphs in the video.

In the video, fast-forward to 36:30 - these are the results for Kent County. What you see here is:

Precincts that voted....

  • 40% Republican: ~5% Trump siphoned off

  • 50% Republican: ~10% Trump siphoned off

  • 60% Republican: ~15% Trump siphoned off

  • 70% Republican: ~20% Trump siphoned off

  • 80% Republican: ~25% Trump siphoned off

The precincts aren't all precisely that amount, but they follow that linear trend very closely. The variation could be attributed to a little variation programmed into the algo, slight differences in timing of the votes being counted, I'm not a statistician so I'm not sure. But the trend and overall is very clear.

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beholdtheflesh 44 points ago +45 / -1

TL;DR

Michigan lets you vote individual candidates, or a "straight party" option. Each blue dot is a precinct. The more "straight party" Republican votes in a precinct, the more % of Trump votes were siphoned to Biden.

100% this is a computer algorithm, because the data shows that the % of votes siphoned to Biden increases perfectly linearly, the more straight party Republican votes, across all the precincts.

For example, a precinct that had 85% straight republican votes, had 20% of Trump votes siphoned to Biden - leaving Trump with 65% in that precinct.

Wayne County (Detroit) did NOT show evidence of an algorithm. Only Republican precincts had votes siphoned. It looks like the algorithm didn't kick in unless the precinct had 20% or more straight republican ballots.