I haven't seen Clinton's numbers, but Trump's numbers don't match perfectly. More 3's than 2's violates the law. It's perfectly in line with getting 30% of 1000 votes though...
The data is on the Milwaukee County Clerk's website. I pulled it down, and the wards' total populations have a median of 1000 voters and 65% are between 500-1500. The biggest ward has 4000 and the smallest has around 300 iirc.
In other words, they do not cross numerous orders of magnitude as required for Benford to hold. The law does not quite hold for Trump, given his spike at 3. However the spine lines up with a 30% share of 1000 votes.
The other candidates, I would guess, are closer to Benford's distribution because they garnered so few votes that they actually would span several orders of magnitude - 1's, 10's, 100's - whereas Trump and Biden votes would almost all be numbered in the 100's.
The sizes of the precincts themselves don't follow Benford's Law, so it would be silly to expect the vote counts to follow it.
The numbers they're using are votes per ward in Milwaukee. But, the population of each ward is not natural - they are divided up to have about 1000 voters each - hence the number of votes is not natural.
Number of votes per ward, which makes Benford useless here. The wards are artifically designated and have a median of 1000 voters each. Given 80% turnout and 70% of votes, Biden's distribution looks exactly like you would expect it to look.
Milwaukee was stolen don't get me wrong, but Benford's law really doesn't apply here. Benford applies to natural numbers. Milwaukee election wards are artifically designated with a narrow range of voters. Biden's and Trump's charts both perfectly reflect a 70-30 split of the median ward size.
IIRC They won a court order earlier this week that these votes must be kept separate, for this exact reason.
https://github.com/alex/nyt-2020-election-scraper
This site has that data for the battleground states.
Lol OK. I've been on T_D since 2016. If you want to push fake propaganda over the truth then you're the commie.
Black people can't possibly understand blockchain, this is vote suppression!
Unfortunately this is all easily explained without fraud. Milwaukee's wards are all fairly close to the same size because they were designed that way.
The median number of votes cast per ward is 830. With a 70-30 split as reported, you get Biden with a median of 580 votes per ward and Trump with a median of 250 votes per ward, which matches almost perfectly with the distributions shown in the graph.
It's pure coincidence that Trump's distribution curve overlays the Benford curve so as to look like they almost match.
It does seem at some point the numbers are entered into a screen, because there have already been several documented cases of the Biden/Trump tallies being transposed, a number missing a 0, etc.
However, your right that Benford doesn't apply, for other reasons. Benford works on natural data sets that span several orders of magnitude. The numbers here come from artificially constructed wards with a narrow range of possible numbers.
Unfortunately this is all easily explained without fraud. Milwaukee's wards are all fairly close to the same size because they were artificially designed that way. The median number of votes cast per ward is 830. With a 70-30 split as reported, you get Biden with a median of 580 votes per ward and Trump with a median of 250 votes per ward, which matches almost perfectly with the distributions shown in the graph. It's pure coincidence that Trump's distribution curve overlays the Benford curve so as to look like they almost match.
Yep, I actually ran than analysis on Milwaukee wards total populations and there's a huge spike at 1, a small hump around 7-9, and the rest very low. Doesn't follow Benford at all.
I got excited about this initially but after diving in I think it's a nonstarter. The ward sizes are not natural and only cover a narrow range of possible numbers, making them a really bad fit for Benford analysis.
Milwaukee's wards are divided up so they all have roughly the same number of people. There is some variance but the median is 1019 voters per ward. At 83% turnout you get a median of 830 votes per ward.
Assuming a 70-30 split as reported, you would expect a cluster of Biden results around 400-600 and a cluster of Trump results around 200-400, which matches pretty well with what we see.
It appears to be the ward by ward vote totals from Milwaukee County. I downloaded the data from their website and got the same results.
Regular people should be doing this. It's trusting the media and the government agencies that got us here in the first place. A free citizenry needs to take responsibility for itself.
They're not off the hook, but we can't spread out resources too thin, else we won't win anywhere.
When they say "called," it just means the MSM is strongly confident of the outcome, not that the election is actually over.
The media "calling a state" isn't an official result, it's just them deciding they have a solid guess about who's going to win.
I've got 4 kids, homeschooling, not quite high school age yet, and this is my worst nightmare. Do you have any thoughts on what you could have done differently?
They're not broken up, you're not telling them your party. Your party is listed on the roll next to your name, so the poll worker can see it. It would be nice if they hid that information for the general election, but they probably use the same systems and paperwork for the primaries.
They're not asking your party. They have the vote roles which probably include party registration. You show up and give your name, they look you up to make sure you haven't voted already, at which point they can see how you're registered.
Wake County is extremely blue. Do we have reason to believe these are mostly red ballots that haven't been counted?