The FBI was a terrible idea from its conception. The conservatives of the age argued that this is exactly what would happen as IT ALWAYS DOES.
We shall see about that with our new judge.
Even more good news, I would expect such a lead there.
If Trump does 2016 -PA, their fight even after wont matter.
Did not know that. Yes, if there is no in person early voting, that explains it all. That makes a million drastically less important. I was thinking it was like FL, in which there would be no way on earth we could make up half of that on election day
How were they in 2018, 2016?
Not sure about PA, heard Dems were up 1 million in EV and VBM. If True, thats insurmountable.
I am watching. I am fine with pep and cheer, just not my style. Thanks.
Yeah, I am getting the same impression. I can just tell. Shame, I wanted real fucking coverage, on one side it BIden landslide (the likes of which nobody but Jeb has ever seen). On the other, its Trump landslide 400+ electoral votes, PA is in the bag. Sick of this BS, I want someone who calls balls and strikes.
Is PA really a million+ for Dem early vote and mail in? I don't really believe this number, but have heard it touted.
I think you have the 2018 election confused with 2016. Desantis down 230K in FL going into election (I am not really sure about this, but have heard it). Dems were +96K going into election in 2016, they are +104K in FL today.
I am fine with Dems staying home.
He just said gulf and bay county opened in FL. Bay county has Panama City, pretty Red area, so we should knock the Dem numbers down a bit today, nothing ultimately substantial.
Yes, barring any surprise Trump takes FL. Id rather be in our position than Joe Biden's right now. We have two variables to count on which is 2016 % advantage compared to Dems on election day needs to be the same, and potentially a lot more Dem ballots in the mail that will be arriving.
Biden's camp has the following to worry about... GOP supervoters who have not voted yet... Lots GOP crushing election day turnout DEM election day voters in 2016 who voted by mail this year (so they cant count on the on election day) Black vote being down overall Youth vote being down overall COVID scarring their voters in larger cities.
In PA and NC, YES. They are not necessarily holding them, its normal for people not to return ballots, but they know the names and addresses of those that are Dems, that did not return a ballot, they will deliver from this group for PA. They will have all the ballots they need to take PA. They explicitly passed bits of legislation in PA that you can follow like a recipe to do exactly this. PA will not be decided, and its going to the courts.
I follow that guy, he was right in 2016, but he was over optimistic on FL and where we would be right now. Last week it was "ahhh we'll be ahead in FL by Thursday" Today its "ahh dems beat us by 104K, thats nothing".
That would be excellent news, a 60/40 GOP advantage in the tight states would crush dems. Anything closer to 50/50 not so much. Hard to tell as usual. Also its important GOP meets or exceeds 2016, any COVID shyness etc. would be bad. I am NOT taking D flip for Trump as a major factor, thats not how it works. Its usually a wash. We need bigger turnout, plain and simple.
Have to call it though, he was much more optimistic last week on where we would be today. Not sure how much confidence I have in this guy anymore. Also not sure why we would count on low election day turnout for dems.
FL is on the edge. I think FL will go to recount. Dems doing slightly better than in 2016. So PA could be essential. I think Dems probably knew PA was the state they would have to steal.
Dems in 2016 went into election with 96K votes, they gained this year and sit at 104K votes. A million new people now live in FL compared to 2016. Trump won FL in 2016 by 130K votes. If we see a 2016 repeat, Trump should win FL by 100K votes. Any decline in GOP or major gain in Dem turnout tomorrow would likely see Biden carry FL. We at least have to get 2016 GOP numbers out.
That would be insurmountable.
Definitely ignore exit polls.
My guess is weeks. Certainly not the night of.
Good on you. A stronger than 2016 R showup is difference between nail biter and potential landslide.
I understand, buts never made a difference in the end, even with Regan, he won with his party alone. I am not counting on anything extraordinary, nothing is suggesting that anything like that is happening. We of course have a lot of that in states like NC, SC, GA where much older people who generally vote Republican are registered Democrats.