Ahh hehehehehehehe.
I think thats a campaign team. I heard somewhere in PA, Arkansas would be weird.
Left cant.... MEME
MI looks good for Trump. Dont kid yourself though, independents are not this wild crazy crowd that is unpredictable. Any major shift with indies would reflect itself in party votes as well.
Looks similar to the vote that put Sinema in the Senate, same people, same places, she took indies by about 10%. Parties have 4/4 voters, those that voted same way in last 4 elections, votes they can count on. Those numbers look similar to 2018, independents may call themselves this "independent" , doesnt mean they are really independent and not predictable, if you take the 4/4 voters you can pretty much bank on the same divergence with indies. Any major divergence in independent voters would show up reflected somewhere in party vote.
I am seeing this EVERYWHERE. I am a number cruncher (hate it, but I am). 2016 patterns emerging. We do FL around the same as 2016 as well. So one of two things, 1. Republicans really are waiting until election day to swell out, 2. Republicans will not come out in a major way, we have 2016 with caveats, a nail biter. I have a hard time believing all the GOP voters are coordinating to come together on election day. Logic would dictate that the patterns we have seen that so closely mimic 2016, will continue on election day. The bright side is, we SEE 2016... Ill take that.
They will be voting for NOT TRUMP, not biden.
Doesnt seem to be an indication of huge amount of Dems voting Trump. They can take an area of Dems (Solid Dems they know will not vote Trump) extrapolate that against numbers in other places and detect major swings. They have exit polls too, yes I know they are polls, but wrong polls use similar formulas to other wrong poll years and no major swing indication. This idea major numbers of Dems are going to vote Republican is pie in the sky.
What was dem advantage going into election day in 2016? Also, is early voting over in NV?
Id love to know what was the driving force behind that comment.
Where is this from?
Id really like to know the background of this. In reality, this is how it breaks folks. Both sides have people who are real good at this. Think Hillary in 2016 canceling the fireworks a day or two out. The insiders know, the first cracks will come through with actions like this, not the polls, not early voting, not exit polling. Problem is, you can never really count on it until you look back in retrospect.
We have actual numbers to look at now, not speculation. On the ground in NC a bellwether for black votes, its 18% in support of Trump, same in GA, a bit better but no massive black support (not shocked). We are not seeing anything so huge in FL, NC, AZ, PA, GA, SC that suggest a major wave of Republicans around the corner. We have pretty decent numbers in FL, but will likely beat where we were in early and mail in voting by about 20K more than we did in 2016. Dems had +96K in FL in 2016 on election eve, Dems will only have about 60-70K advantage this year. AZ has trouble spots with independent voters in Maricopa county, the same people who elected Kristen Sinema are back, GOP are ahead of Dems but not by that many and its a big republican leaning county. Independents are exit polling in favor of Biden, in some places big. I think Trump wins this, dont get me wrong, but all the rally size, Lil Wayne, Hunter dick pics are leading people to into a bubble. I have seen nothing that indicates this election is anything other than a nail biter. We seem to have the same partisan razor thin 50/50 margin we have had since 2016 and in 2000.
I know, I was about to say. It could be good, but we dont know that.
Wow... We are SOOOOOOO WINNING. If a republican is not under-polled by at least 2.3 points, it will be the first time ever. So, if what happens 100% of the time, happens again, we lose. They seem pretty confident for such an ominous statement.
I think I am starting to believe in reptilians.
Hopefully, if it comes to PA or NC we wont know until a week later.
There are ways to read into that, and nothing indicates a major wave of Dems voting for Trump, or GOP going for Biden. They can get a feel for non-party affiliated by looking at areas with a high number of non party affiliated, and what happened in 2018... areas of AZ are like this, they went for Sinema, patterns look the same for indies. I have yet to see anything that indicates a big surprise in anyones favor. Admittedly, GOP doing so good compared to Dems in Broward county is out of the ordinary, but I am guessing that is due to vote harvester of elections Brenda Sykes being gone. I think we are seeing what generally happens in Broward without the cheating, and Dems are way down.
I am feeling real good about MI. Any surprises other than PA, anything else Trump took in 2016 that he loses this time could be a disaster. Dems will cheat tooth and nail for NC if they need too.
No, you are in a bubble, we are seeing a lot that looks like 2016, but nothing really that indicates any huge red wave, or smash, or massive electoral victory. We have bright spots, normal spots, and some trouble spots particularity with non party affiliated voters perhaps. Look for a nail biter.
Not sure about either of those. Lots to focus on, AZ, NC, I assumed Maine split again and NE. Way I see it, if NE was really in play, we would be fucked all over the map.
Yeah, I dont think so either, too much fuckery there anyways. I think in reality it would be close, similar to 2016. Trump only took PA by 44K, Dems will easily FIND way more than needed this year.
Gay cowboy?