This is the most realistic prediction. My map, however, if much more delusional than this

For a Republican:

8% is a good target to shoot for.

14% is the mark at which losing the race becomes very difficult.

We don't have any data for 31% or anything higher because it's never been done before

That's not a purebread Apache! You bigots are appropriating eurocopter-kin! REEEEE!