I get Trump needing 60.47% (42,994 for Trump vs 28,107 for Biden), and that's ignoring 3rd party votes
Edit: the math for anyone interested --
if Biden gets x, Trump needs (x + 14,887)
x + (x + 14,887) = 71,101
2x = 71,101 - 14,887
x = 28,107
(x + 14,887) = 42,994
One more question. Looking at PA, Republican/YES is at 20c, Democrat/NO is at 16c. Isn't this the same bet or am I missing something? It's like this for every one I looked at, where the Dem/NO looks like a better value for what seems to be the same bet.
if each vote had a 99% probability of being for Biden, there is about a 1 in 398,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance that all 23,277 would be for Biden, and yes that's the actual odds (unless I did the math wrong)
A better way to look at it is being a 91.4% decrease