Disclaimer: I believe this election was stolen and that there was massive fraud. But Shrivas graphs does not show fraud in the way he explained it.
It was obvious that Shrivas expectation that the graph should be straight was false.
He and this guy make the wrong conclusions based on the wrong assumptions.
You have to ask yourself what kind of voter will be voting for Biden only or Trump only? I argue that it is democrats that vote TRUMP because they like trump this election, but they don't want to vote for the rest of the republican party. And I argue that it is republicans that vote for BIDEN because they like biden this election (or dislike trump), but they don't want to vote for the rest of the democratic party.
It is wrong to assume that it is only republicans who would vote Trump only and only democrats that vote Biden only.
This is proven by looking at the graph with dem%. It is also slanted from top to bottom.
low dem area -> high biden
high dem area -> high trump
low rep area -> high trump
high rep area -> high biden
I am only arguing against the notion that the graph should be flat, which was Shrivas expectation. I don't have an opinion on if the graphs show fraud in any other way.
He never swapped the x and y axis to show dem%. He is saying multiple times that he is expecting the graph to be linear, which is not logical if you read my original comment. A linear decrease is exactly what you would expect.
As republican support increases (rep straight vote %) there are going to be more republicans in that precinct that are flipping to biden (2%) than there are democrat flipping to trump (also 2%).
Thanks for your reply.
I have watched it. He compares different counties, BUT he does not swap the x and y-axis to show dem%. Which is the comparison you have to do before saying that there is something sketchy about this.
I just want to make sure we are focusing on the real stuff and not things which can be easily disproven. If you don't agree with me on that then thats fine.
His premise is wrong, why would the normal case be that the precincts follow the line?
Lets say 2% of all dems and republicans this election are not happy with the candidate and vote for the opposing candidate.
In a heavy rep area, 2% of all republicans voting biden will be more people than the 2% of dems voting trump. So it is expected that as rep straight vote increases, more people are voting biden than trump. And as dem straight vote increases, more people are voting trump than biden.
Hmm weird that he doesn't show any graphs using the dem%, that would be a very easy to do and would clearly show the difference...
Hmm weird that he doesn't allow any comments on the youtube video.. Why could that be?
What is mathematically impossible? If you have x-axis to plot republican straight vote % from high to low instead. You would get a graph which shows that all the red dots are going from bottom to top as we increase x-value, and all the blue dots are going from top to bottom as we increase the x-value.
Here is another user explaining it: https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8XO2YxF/its-with-a-heavy-heart-that-i-ha/
Its very simple to verify:
Take a blue dot in the most top right. Its in a precinct with low dem straight voting but it gets a high y-value
Take a red dot in the top left. Its in a precinct with low rep straight voting but it gets a high y-value.
Here is another user explaining it: https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8XO2YxF/its-with-a-heavy-heart-that-i-ha/
Sorry but Shiva is wrong. Check my replies in other threads.
If you wanna compare to Biden, you should change x axis to show dem %. Which will make the line go down just like in his slides.
Don't just downvote because you don't like it.
Here is another user explaining it: https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8XO2YxF/its-with-a-heavy-heart-that-i-ha/
If the graphs is displaying what you describe, then I agree with you.
But looking at this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztu5Y5obWPk&t=22m24s
I think he is saying exactly as my example above.
x = 95%
y = 10 - 95 = -85%
Goes to the bottom right.
He is expecting precincts to follow the red line which means he is expecting more of these kinds of precincts:
200 votes
-95 straight rep vote (95%)
-5 straight dem vote (5%)
-95 trump (95%)
-5 biden (5%)
This would end up in the right middle:
x: very high
y: trump - straight rep = 95% - 95% = 0 -> middle of y axis
To me this precinct is weird. Its like the most republican area ever with 95% trump total voter support, but for some reason almost 50% don't want to vote for the republican party.
Thanks for the reply.
I don't have an answer for the 20%.
Regarding the difference between counties, as far as I saw in the presentation, he only compared to one county which didn't not have the slope and that looked to me like it was because that specific county didnt have many precincts with high % of straight party voting, so all precincts ended up on low x-values. But perhaps I missed some comparison.
If he added more comparisons and swapped the x and y to represent D% and if the slope would not there, then I would agree that is sketchy.
"In my head, the percentages of D's and R's voting straight ticket shouldn't change much precinct to precinct, but independents hardly ever vote straight ticket."
This is true I agree. But the problem is that he has divided the two categories.
Lets take one of the extreme examples with high x-value and low y-value.
How could such a precinct look:
200 total voters
180 voters, vote straight party method
-190 votes for rep (95%)
-10 votes for dem (5%)
20 voters, vote individual candidate
-2 votes for trump (10%)
-18 votes for biden (90%)
This will be a precinct in his graph to the very most right and bottom because y-value will be 10-95 = -85
Now lets ask us, who and what kind of voter is voting "trump only". My thinking is that this is a person who does not like republican party, but likes trump. More likely to be a democrat than a republican. Because if this was a republican, why would he not vote republican party instead of only trump?
Same for "biden only" as above but opposite.
And in our imaginary precinct, there are a lot more republicans who could for some reason vote for biden this election than there are democrats who are flipped to trump. Because looking at the straight party voting, its a 95% republican area. Lets say in general voters have a x% chance to flip to vote for the other party candidate. The percentage will be the same for any precinct, but since there are more republicans in this area, there will be more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes.
I imagine it to be similar for biden, but probobly a lower percentage. So there are going to be both some republicans and some democrats flipping. But they will vote for the candidate and not for the party most probobly which explains the graph as natural. (If im not missing something)
Thanks for discussing this with me:), sure, i hope i can..
He is saying basically "It is weird that in a high republican area (high x-value) that there are more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes.
His example:
200 total voters
100 voters, vote straight party method
-60 votes for rep (60%)
-40 votes for dem (40%)
100 voters, vote individual candidate
-65 votes for trump (65%)
-35 votes for biden (35%)
His x: Republican straight party vote %
His y: Difference of %Trump individual minus %straight party vote
As you can see the % is for each category and not bundled into one group.
So lets take on of the extreme examples with high x-value and low y-value.
How could such a precinct look:
200 total voters
180 voters, vote straight party method
-190 votes for rep (95%)
-10 votes for dem (5%)
20 voters, vote individual candidate
-2 votes for trump (10%)
-18 votes for biden (90%)
This will be a precinct in his graph to the very most right and bottom because y-value will be 10-95 = -85
Now lets ask us, who and what kind of voter is voting "trump only". My thinking is that this is a person who does not like republican party, but likes trump. More likely to be a democrat than a republican. Because if this was a republican, why would he not vote republican party instead of only trump?
Same for "biden only" as above but opposite.
And in our imaginary precinct, there are a lot more republicans who could for some reason vote for biden this election than there are democrats who are flipped to trump.
Yeah and Im trying to argue that I think in high republican areas (high x-value) you will have more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes because there are more "republicans" in those areas that could be inclined to vote "biden only" than there is "democrats" who would be inclined to vote "trump only"
You have a point, but aren't the percentages split: If the "trump only vote" is like 10% that is only 10% of all the candidate only votes. They are not a percentage towards the total vote both straight party and single candidate.
I don't know if I am missing something in his presentation. But for me the graphs looks fine:
I think he is interpreting straight party vote vs only trump vote in the wrong way. "straight party vote" does not mean those people dislike trump. "only trump vote" means the one voted dislikes the republic party.
People who vote "trump only" are not fans of the republic party. People who vote "biden only" are not fans of the democratic party.
In my opinion, this means that it is democrats that will vote for "trump only" and republicans that vote for "biden only".
If this is true, that means in areas with a lot of republicans there will be more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes because there are more republicans than democrats.
And the opposite it true: in areas with a lot of democrats there will be more "trump only" votes than "biden only" votes.
I think if he did this analysis but with demo% on x and y. We will see the same decline.
Just want to make sure we are looking at actual fraud during these times and not something that is just a distraction.
Correct me if I'm wrong on this.
I don't know if I am missing something in his presentation. But for me the graphs looks fine:
I think he is interpreting straight party vote vs only trump vote in the wrong way. "straight party vote" does not mean those people dislike trump. "only trump vote" means the one voted dislikes the republic party.
People who vote "trump only" are not fans of the republic party. People who vote "biden only" are not fans of the democratic party.
In my opinion, this means that it is democrats that will vote for "trump only" and republicans that vote for "biden only".
If this is true, that means in areas with a lot of republicans there will be more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes because there are more republicans than democrats.
And the opposite it true: in areas with a lot of democrats there will be more "trump only" votes than "biden only" votes.
I think if he did this analysis but with demo% on x and y. We will see the same decline.
Just want to make sure we are looking at actual fraud during these times and not something that is just a distraction.
I don't know if I am missing something in his presentation. But for me the graphs looks fine:
I think he is interpreting straight party vote vs only trump vote in the wrong way. "straight party vote" does not mean those people dislike trump. "only trump vote" means the one voted dislikes the republic party.
People who vote "trump only" are not fans of the republic party. People who vote "biden only" are not fans of the democratic party.
In my opinion, this means that it is democrats that will vote for "trump only" and republicans that vote for "biden only".
If this is true, that means in areas with a lot of republicans there will be more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes because there are more republicans than democrats.
And the opposite it true: in areas with a lot of democrats there will be more "trump only" votes than "biden only" votes.
I think if he did this analysis but with demo% on x and y. We will see the same decline.
Just want to make sure we are looking at actual fraud during these times and not something that is just a distraction.
I don't know if I am missing something in his presentation. But for me the graphs looks fine:
I think he is interpreting straight party vote vs only trump vote in the wrong way. "straight party vote" does not mean those people dislike trump. "only trump vote" means the one voted dislikes the republic party.
People who vote "trump only" are not fans of the republic party. People who vote "biden only" are not fans of the democratic party.
In my opinion, this means that it is democrats that will vote for "trump only" and republicans that vote for "biden only".
If this is true, that means in areas with a lot of republicans there will be more "biden only" votes than "trump only" votes because there are more republicans than democrats.
And the opposite it true: in areas with a lot of democrats there will be more "trump only" votes than "biden only" votes.
I think if he did this analysis but with demo% on x and y. We will see the same decline.
Just want to make sure we are looking at actual fraud during these times and not something that is just a distraction.
If this is the case then I have misunderstood it.
But I don't think it changes anything. Because the more republican an area is the more republican there are which might split the ticket to biden only + some rep votes.
Yes but the percentage that splits is the same. The problem is that the % used to paint the y-axis is not calculated towards the total of votes. It is calculated compared to all CANDIDATE ONLY VOTES.
So in republican areas you have MORE people splitting to biden than there are democrats splitting to trump. Because there are many more republicans than democrats. This is what makes this graphs so confusing for so many..