We did not make it to DC but we are near Harrisburg now. Let’s go to the capitol and raise hell there!
The soap box is still needed - we need to win the propaganda war whether there is a shooting war going on or not. Every strategist in history knows this.
The jury box is still at play. Multiple lawsuits are still going on. This is not over and ultimate victory never depended on Texas!
The ballot box still at play in GA and ideally everywhere if Trump calls for a special national election under the supervision of the NG.
The ammo box of course has always and will always remain viable. it is the fundamental right from which all other rights emanate. Be ready.
I have conducted an expanded analysis of the "bellwether county" effect that has been described previously. I try to address some of the major issues with the original analysis. To do so, I have developed six criteria by which to identify bellwether counties and show that all six analyses yield the same result: Biden's "win" was a statistical impossibility. Summary table here:
https://github.com/trainingvirtue/2020-Election-Data-and-Analysis/blob/main/Bellwether%20Table.png
The traditional definition of such counties are counties that have voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1980 - the perfect bellwethers. This is the definition that wikipedia uses. There are 11 such counties, which have predicted the winner a combined 110 times over the prior 10 elections. Using Fisher's Exact test (but you can get similar results using Chi Square or the Binomial test) one can calculate the probability of seeing specific deviations from the expected distribution. For example, how often would you expect to see an election in which only 10 out of 11 counties made the correct call, given their prior record? Well, the probability of such an event is 0.091. In other words, you would expect to see this once every 11 elections. So, it can happen. How about 9 out of 11? Thats pretty rare. You would expect to see this once every 132 elections. In the 2020 election, 10 out of 11 perfect bellwether counties went to Trump rather than the supposed winner. The probability of seeing such an event is so low that you would only expect to see it once every 1,276 trillion elections!!
But, of course, one criticism here is that these extreme probabilities are being driven by my limiting this to just perfect counties. After all, the fail rate of zero carries a disproportionate weight in the analysis. That's fair. How about expanding the analysis to all 38 "historical bellwethers"? They have far from a perfect record. Over the last 10 elections, they have been wrong 32 out of 348 times. So in any given election you would expect a couple of fails. In the 2020 election, however, they went to trump 16 out of 38 times. How unlikely is this? You would expect to see one outcome like this every 3.5 million elections!
Another criticism of all this is that these bellwether counties depend on results from the past 40 years. Some of those counties may have changed a lot over this time and may no longer be representative of the whole country. What happens if you narrow it down to counties that have been bellwethers over the past five elections? Essentially, narrowing it down to this century. Turns out there are 58 counties have have gotten every election right since the 2000 election. Shockingly, Trump won 51 out of these 58 "modern perfect bellwether" counties!! Needless to say, we are once again in the astronomical probability range. To expect to see an event like this one, you would need to witness this many elections: 189,472,138,713,602,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. I'll leave it up to you to read that one aloud!
Ok, so again the criticism arises that I am relying on that big fat zero there. Sure. How about using all counties that got 4 out of 5 elections right? There are 261 "highly predictive modern counties". That's a lot of counties. We would have expected these counties to go 80% to Biden and 20% to Trump. What did we get? They went 66% to Trump. The chances of getting such an outcome are so low that you would need to witness 355 million trillion elections to expect to see it!!
"But," you say, "I don't believe this bellwether stuff because it relies so much on getting the result right even if by just one vote. It's just not fair to equate a county that went solidly for the winner to one that went by a tiny margin." Thats fair. Let's look at the counties that have called every election in the past 20 years correctly by at least 5 percentage points. In other words, we want counties that went to Obama in 2008 by 5 and also went to Trump in 2016 by 5. It's a tall order and so there are only 4 such "super bellwether" counties that got this right five times in a row. Guess what? All four went to Trump!! And yes, the chances of this happening are so low you would only expect to see this 2020 result once every ten thousand elections!
And sure, four counties is a small sample. So I also did this for all counties that got four out of five elections right. There were 60 such "lightweight super bellwethers". We would have expected 12 of these to go to Trump. Well at this point you know what's coming: 47 went to Trump!! Here is how many elections you would need to witness to expect to see this: 378,094,682,400,091,000,000,000,000,000!
As a last point, I have added the Trump average win margin to each of the rows on the table. This is just meant to show you that Trump didn't squeak by in all these counties, by and large he killed them. My favorite stat in this respect is for the four "super bellwether" counties. I would argue these four are the most predictive counties in the country. Obama took all four of these counties by an average margin of 16% in the landmark 2008 election. In 2020, Trump took these counties by an average margin of 19%. Yes, it was a landslide.
My analysis uses the same dataset I linked to in a prior post:
https://thedonald.win/p/11QlKXFDoA/statistical-evidence-of-300k-vot/
Dear Pedes, I am posting this on behalf of a friend who has not been able to get this message out. I think this is an incredibly important analysis. It shows statistical evidence of how the dominion systems cost Trump 300K votes across the swing states.
We've done an analysis of the 20 years worth of election and census data, constructing longitudinal predictive models of election results for all 3000 US counties. All of these models have R-Squared predictive indices over 95%. Unique among all models, the 2020 model has a highly statistically significant effect (p<0.001) against Trump among the states that used the Dominion systems. Digging further into the swing states, there is a larger and even more statistically significant effect. It is important to note that this effect was not observed for prior elections (we show the 2016 results here), only the 2020 election. As you can see from the final model among swing states, there is an inexplicable 1.8% switch away from Trump (negative values are bad for Trump in this model). Across 348 counties, with an average population of 47,000, this adds up to 296,000 votes. That is more than the entire margin across the swing states right now! We have uploaded a .CSV file with the county-level election and census data to Github.
https://github.com/trainingvirtue/2020-Election-Data-and-Analysis
We have also uploaded a number of screenshots of the analysis which are listed below:
Figure 1A shows the result of the 2016 election model. Figure 1B shows the result of the above model with the Dominion/Diebold Systems (dss). Note that this variable was not at all close to being statistically significant. Figure 2A shows the result of the 2020 model. Figure 2B shows the result of the 2020 model with the Dominion variable included. As you can see it is statistically significant. Figure 2C shows the results narrowing down to the effect of Dominion, only on the swing states, which you can see is much larger. Figure 3 shows summary characteristics of residuals from the model in Figure 2A by swing vs non-swing state and Dominion vs non-Dominon county. Essentially, the swing state counties went consistently to Trump above what the model predicted. This is the landslide that we all saw in the early evening of November 3rd. The errors completely reverse, however, among the Dominion counties. Figure 4 shows the total vote by swing vs non-swing state and Dominion vs non-Dominion. This shows that the average swing state Dominion county had a voter population of 46,756.
Given the model results and the size of the counties, we can calculate that 1.81% x 46,756 = 846 lost Trump votes per county. If we multiply this by the 348 counties, we calculate 294,507 lost votes for Donald Trump. This is more than the total lead for Joe Biden across the swing states. Please post and disseminate the attached summary figure anywhere you'd like! If someone could help to make memes out of this, we would love it! If any of you have a twitter account that you could use tweet this to the Trump lawyers, please do so.
I have struggled to find the right resources. I've downloaded a few things from various threads but they are sometimes outdated. If someone knows of some other link that has data resources and can reply here that would also be great. I am particularly keen to find:
- A national dataset (updated continuously) for 2020 results by county.
- State level datasets of 2020 results by precinct AND county, again updated continuously.
- Prior election data. The resource I have found that I like is this one: https://libguides.princeton.edu/elections
Many thanks if one of you has already done the work of digging these up and has a good link. thanks!
Thats where the fraud happened. Other than Kyle Becker and Sydney Powell, I am not seeing the big influencers talking about this as much as they should have. I know 4chan is on it too of course, but that's just a workspace, TD needs to help push this story into the national consciousness. Dead voters, backdated ballots, harvesting and tampering are all REAL fraud too, but that's not how they stole the landslide. Dominion and Scorecard is how it happened. Most of our efforts should be focused there.
This was my favorite line from President Trump today. I think this sums up exactly what this revolution is all about. Hold the line!!