5
uvontheterrible 5 points ago +5 / -0

2016 Miami-Dade Numbers:

Clinton - 623,006 (63.7%)

Trump - 333,666 (34.1%)

Clinton Margin - 289,340

.

Current 2020 Numbers:

Democrat - 355,174 (41.31%)

Republican - 269,004 (31.28%)

Democrat Margin - 86,170

.

Republicans are currently at 80% of Trump's total 2016 vote.

Democrats are currently at 57% of Clinton's total 2016 vote.

Republican turnout in this county is off the charts, and Democrat turnout is severly lagging. This is the most populous county and one where the Democrats typically get their largest net advantage. They need to win by a huge margin in Miami-Dade in order to make up for the many other counties where Republicans have an advantage.

12
uvontheterrible 12 points ago +12 / -0

Not exactly true. Republicans are leading in the in-person early votes but way behind in mail-in votes.

But overall the Democrats are not up by nearly enough in Miami-Dade to win the state. Biden is toast in FL.

3
uvontheterrible 3 points ago +3 / -0

If you're going to make a statement like this, especially on a new account, you should link to a source, otherwise people will just assume you're a concern troll.

Keep in mind that the overall early vote in Texas this year is way up from last time, so it's not surprising the youth vote is also way up. The relevant question is, what percent of the total vote is comprised of the youth vote, and is that very different from last time.

3
uvontheterrible 3 points ago +3 / -0

Republicans are ahead of Democrats by 16pts in Texas and that lead will almost certainly grow on election day.

The only way Trump doesn't win Texas by a LOT is if huge numbers of Republicans are voting for Biden, and there is absolutely no evidence of that.

1
uvontheterrible 1 point ago +1 / -0

The vast majority of Texas votes have been in-person. I think it represents a lot of very pissed off people who have been patiently waiting all year and are now going out to vote for Trump.

7
uvontheterrible 7 points ago +7 / -0

When did Ice Cube back down? I missed that.

50
uvontheterrible 50 points ago +50 / -0

You should check in to the local federal prison and start doing your time

LOL

1
uvontheterrible 1 point ago +1 / -0

LOL, twitter still seems to think that if they don't acknowledge something then it's not true.

I suspect a lot of people will simply ignore twitter on election night and check out real news sites that are actually reporting results.

1
uvontheterrible 1 point ago +1 / -0

Twitter, Facebook and the Google search engine should all become public utilities. Regulate them just like the local power company.

4
uvontheterrible 4 points ago +4 / -0

You have not even explained exactly what you think the problem is here. Your post is vague. Judging by the other responses, I'm not the only one who doesn't understand.

What exactly do you think the issue is?

4
uvontheterrible 4 points ago +4 / -0

Not sure what you're getting at but the numbers are fine. Here is the official FL website with the actual numbers.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

41
uvontheterrible 41 points ago +41 / -0

Headline is kind of useless without the article.

Since it's NPR the article will probably be useless too though.

1
uvontheterrible 1 point ago +1 / -0

How dare a US President actually stand up for US workers! What was he thinking?

266
uvontheterrible 266 points ago +266 / -0

Funner fact:

In 1980, two weeks before the election Carter was up by 6-8 pts in most polls. Reagan won by 10.

Don't trust the polls.

2
uvontheterrible 2 points ago +2 / -0

This article is a great explanation of why most polls are wrong and why the Trafalger polls are more accurate.

In Summary, if you ask people how they think the people in their social circle will be voting, the results are more accurate than if you ask people how they themselves will be voting. Doing it this way helps to filter out social desirability bias (i.e. the shy Trump vote).

So by their own admission, the social circle question has predicted the last 5 elections they've polled more accurately than the traditional "who are you voting for" question, and the social circle question shows the race even between Trump and Biden. The traditional poll shows Biden up by 10.

This is a good indication, along with other evidence that's been published, that most media polls are probably skewed by 10 points in Biden's favor.

31
uvontheterrible 31 points ago +31 / -0

LMAO

I was going to make a coyote reference, but I just read the other replies. I don't want to pile on (because of your past history of literal thinking and misinterpretation, I feel the need to explain that "pile on" is a football term meaning to abuse someone already defeated)

Well I’m note getting screwed on taxes, gas prices aren’t 5 dollars a gallon and we haven’t started a new war. So yeah I’m better

Poll not going as some expected

Better. Definitely. Thank goodness that coyote dragged my 250 lb. body across the Room Grande.

The virus came from China, or was it those darn coyotes again?

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