Current math on Georgia:
Biden currently leads by just over 1,000 votes. There are approximately 8,200 counties yet to report, plus roughly 8,900 overseas/military votes.
If current modeling holds true, once the counties report, Biden's lead will increase to about 1,500 in Georgia.
This means that it will come down to the overseas/Military votes. Trump would need about 65% of the military vote to secure Georgia.
I just did the math on Georgia. Based on the existing percentages for Trump and Biden based off votes that have been counted:
Once the votes are tallied, if "new" votes follow existing patterns, Trump should win Georgia by about 10,000 votes
Someone made a good point below about Georgia and Pennsylvania. IF they fall to Trump, why wouldn't Biden demand recount? The thought is, they wouldn't want a recount under the assumption there is known fraud going on.
Go back to 2016:
Trump won Wisconsin by 23,000 votes (.7%)
Trump won Michigan by 9,000 votes (.3%)
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes (.7%)
That totals 46 Electoral College votes, which would have made Clinton the winner. The big question is....WHY DIDN'T SHE DEMAND A RECOUNT?
The following quote is from Marc Elias, General Counsel for the Clinton Campaign: "Let me be clear: We have not asked for a recount. We have not sought a recount. We have not pushed for a recount. What we have done is say that if there is going to be a recount, we will participate in the ways I have described." link here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/29/hillary-clintons-campaign-didnt-want-this-recount-and-doesnt-think-it-will-change-anything/
Airport Operations at Cherry Capital Airport in TC have begun preparations for the arrival of (6) total aircraft: one for the President, one for the VP, (2) C-17's for motorcade and logistics and (2) additional for families and additional members of the travelling party
I did the math on AZ this morning. The main issue is the "provisional" ballots. Apparently, there are approximately 36,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted. However, those will only be counted once verified, so that 36,000 number could look a lot different.
Trump is trending well, but he will need to win a huge chunk of the remaining vote...like 75% to overtake Biden. It will be close. But even if it's close, assume there will be a recount for sure.